5130 County Road 868e Rd · Jones Creek, TX 77422

$114,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2015 1.07 ac lot $68/sqft · 9% above area Est $106k · 9% over ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Double-wide Mobile Home with a 16' x 19' Screened Porch on 1.07 acre has so much potential. You can make it your own with a few cosmetic repairs. The Primary Bathroom has a large separate Shower and a 4' x 5' Corner Jetted Tub. The Vanity Cabinet has Double Sinks and Double Mirrors. The Walk-in Closet is 27' x 5' with an Entry from both the Primary Bathroom and Primary Bedroom. This is a "Split Bedroom Plan" with the Primary Bedroom & Primary Bathroom on one end off the Living Area and the other two bedrooms & bath on the other end. There is a Built-in Corner Desk and Overhead Shelves and Cabinets. There is an inside Utility Room and a Wood Burning Fireplace. This can be a great second home and/or resort home to relax and go boating or fishing in the nearby river.

Key facts

• 1.07 acre lot
• Built 2015
• Listed 84 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 1.8% in Jones Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sweeny ISD (town): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #480 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.72%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,652
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: 8.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $69,328
• Equity at exit: $103,511

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $199,512
• Equity at exit: $223,225

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77422

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $796/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,447

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $114,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,900 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $114,900 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-03-26
    listed $114,900 Active 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    This Double-wide Mobile Home with a 16' x 19' Screened Porch on 1.07 acre has so much potential. You can make it your own with a few cosmetic repairs. The Primary Bathroom has a large separate Shower and a 4' x 5' Corner Jetted Tub. The Vanity Cabinet has Double Sinks and Double Mirrors. The Walk-in Closet is 27' x 5' with an Entry from both the Primary Bathroom and Primary Bedroom. This is a "Split Bedroom Plan" with the Primary Bedroom & Primary Bathroom on one end off the Living Area and the other two bedrooms & bath on the other end. There is a Built-in Corner Desk and Overhead Shelves and Cabinets. There is an inside Utility Room and a Wood Burning Fireplace. This can be a great second home and/or resort home to relax and go boating or fishing in the nearby river.

18. 2022-12-30
    historical
19. 2022-07-19
    listed $165,000 Active
20. 2022-07-17
    historical
21. 2022-07-06
    price $165,000
22. 2022-03-21
    price $169,000
23. 2022-01-17
    status Active
24. 2022-01-11
    historical
25. 2021-10-18
    price $174,000
26. 2021-09-28
    price $179,000
27. 2021-09-09
    price $189,000
28. 2021-09-03
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $796 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,103 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,307/yr (+$109/mo · 164.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥117°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$796
• − Insurance: −$5,693
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$90
• After-tax cash flow: $1,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweeny ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841970
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,607
• Composite: 31.49/100
• National rank: #5975
• State rank: #480 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jones Creek

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #12077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,548

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.41%
• Current HPI: 296.0632
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-42.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $114,900 HARMLS
• 2022-12-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-19 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-06 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2022-03-21 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-01-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-10-18 Price Changed $174,000 HARMLS
• 2021-09-28 Price Changed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2021-09-09 Price Changed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2021-09-03 Listed $199,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2019): $796 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.