48303 20th St Spc 159 · Lancaster, CA 93534

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Built 1981 1,560 sqft lot Est $163k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream mobile home, a charming 1,560-square-foot retreat featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, where modern upgrades and cozy comforts reflect the pride of ownership the homeowner has poured into this property! Designed with your comfort and style in mind, this lovely 2-bed, 2-bath home blends modern amenities with a warm, accommodating ambiance, don't miss the chance to make this lovingly cared-for property your own!

Key facts

• 1,560 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: APN 8950-117-159; Unit listed with porch (Porch 1)
• HOA & community: Located in Leisure Lake park; Park amenities include recreation area, clubhouse/rec room, pool and spa/hot tub; New space rent $703.51; Park deposit $300; Deposit $2,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Individual utility meter
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home; Located in a senior-only park; Space number Spc 159
• Construction: Composition shingle roof; Manufactured in 1981; Manufacture: REMIC; Model: WOODCREST; Trade name: WOODCREST; Skirted
• Exterior features: Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $145,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.79%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,624
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48303 20th Street West #140	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$140,000	$97	81
48303 20th St W #140	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$140,000	$97	81
48303 20th St. West #169	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	13mo	$151,000	$121	78
48303 20th St W #109	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+11%)	1mo	$166,000	$112	76
48303 20th Spc #12 St #12	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	14mo	$169,900	$136	76
48303 W 20th St Spc 59	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	1mo	$186,500	$121	75
48303 20th W	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	1mo	$186,500	$121	75
48303 20th St W #208	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	6mo	$90,000	$78	71
48303 W 20th St #183	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	15mo	$152,000	$122	70
48303 20TH St W #145	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	10mo	$109,990	$95	68
48303 20th St W #68	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	13mo	$120,000	$104	65
48303 W 20th Unit St #86	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	14mo	$153,500	$133	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,364
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $28,846
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93534

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $700	-5% $645	+0% $590	+5% $534	+10% $479
Rent	-10% $420	-5% $505	+0% $590	+5% $674	+10% $759
Rate	-1.0pp $670	-0.5pp $630	base $590	+0.5pp $548	+1.0pp $506

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $160,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $160,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $160,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-03-04
   listed $160,000 Active
6. 2015-03-28
   historical
7. 2015-03-19
   historical
8. 2007-10-13
   historical
9. 2007-06-03
   historical
10. 2007-02-02
    listed
11. 2007-02-02
    listed $90,000
12. 2007-02-02
    listed $72,000
13. 2002-06-19
    listed $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $4,813
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $5,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,763
• Composite: 41.01/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #565 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,430
• Household income: $61,866
• Rent vs Own: 62.7% rent · 37.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3232.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% Black 27% White 23% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.73%
• Current HPI: 395.3098
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.92%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $160,000 AVMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-19 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2007-10-13 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2007-06-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-02-02 Listed $72,000 AVMLS
• 2007-02-02 Listed $90,000 CRMLS
• 2007-02-02 Listed — TheMLS
• 2002-06-19 Listed $32,000 AVMLS