25 Shoreline Dr · Mayflower, AR 72106

$135,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1971 Fair condition Garage $134/sqft · 44% below area Est $240k · 44% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect getaway or potential air bnb with private dock and lake Conway frontage with view and storage building! This home comes fully furnished including fishing gear and kayaks! NEW roof 2022, NEW siding 2022, NEW windows 2022, Screen porch updated in 2022, HVAC 2019, WH 2018 and so many more updates!

Key facts

• Lakefront retreat
• Refreshed interior
• Newly added driveway

Tags

• LAKEFRONT RETREAT
• PRIVATE DOCK
• WATERFRONT LIVING
• REFRESHED INTERIOR
• OPEN LAYOUT
• NEWLY ADDED DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.2% in Mayflower — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#390 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayflower School District (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #127 of 238 in AR (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayflower Elementary School (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #173 of 454 statewide, top 43%, 373 students, 70% FRL); Mayflower Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 201 statewide, top 64%, 315 students, 68% FRL); Mayflower High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 357 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 47% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $122,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.11%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,417
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -43.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
49 Lake Forest Dr	0.30mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,040 (+3%)	3mo	$155,000	$149	71
33 Hwy 89	0.47mi	2/2.0 (+1)	942 (-6%)	11mo	$75,000	$80	49
13 Lakeview Cir	0.16mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (+13%)	23mo	$220,000	$193	46
15 Pine Tree Loop	0.70mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+7%)	8mo	$100,000	$93	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $88,248
• Equity at exit: $117,873

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.47×
• Total profit: $244,542
• Equity at exit: $250,313

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $153,000 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 98 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +64.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 72106

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,418 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $829/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,055

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $364	-5% $325	+0% $287	+5% $249	+10% $211
Rent	-10% $175	-5% $231	+0% $287	+5% $343	+10% $399
Rate	-1.0pp $355	-0.5pp $321	base $287	+0.5pp $252	+1.0pp $217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options: VA loan, Conventional loan, or Cash

Exterior

• Parking: GarageParking pads2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Frame construction
• Construction: Frame exteriorComposition roofCrawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Screened porchOutside storage areaLevel lotLake viewLakefrontGravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Surface range
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatCentral electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer connectionElectric dryer connectionCeiling fansBreakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer connectionElectric dryer connection

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $135,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $135,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $135,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $135,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $135,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $135,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $135,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $135,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $135,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $135,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $135,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $135,000 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    statusdays on market $135,000 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $135,000 Price Change 78 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $135,000 Price Change 77 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $135,000 Price Change 76 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $135,000 Price Change 75 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $135,000 Price Change 74 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    pricestatusdays on market $135,000 Price Change 73 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $140,000 Active 72 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $140,000 Active 71 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 69 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $140,000 Active 68 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 67 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 66 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 65 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 64 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 63 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 62 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $140,000 Active 61 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $140,000 Active 60 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $140,000 Active 59 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $140,000 Active 58 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $140,000 Active 56 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $140,000 Active 54 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $140,000 Active 53 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $140,000 Active 50 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $140,000 Active 49 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $140,000 Active 48 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $140,000 Active 47 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $140,000 Active 45 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    statusdays on market $140,000 Active 42 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $140,000 Price Change 41 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Price Change 40 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Price Change 39 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Price Change 36 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    pricestatusdays on market $140,000 Price Change 35 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $864 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$35/yr (+$3/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$829
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,302
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$312
• After-tax cash flow: $3,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $25,200–$45,360 screening

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Painting, updating the kitchen and bathroom, and landscaping are the highest-ROI updates.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are older and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint or replacement.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — The bathroom fixtures appear outdated and could be replaced for a more modern look.
• Minor Exterior siding — The siding shows some wear and could be repainted or replaced for a fresh look.
• Minor Landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and could be trimmed and improved for better curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Painting can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen and bathroom — Updating these spaces can increase the home's functionality and appeal, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can increase the home's value and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mayflower Elementary School F AR #173/454 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Mayflower Middle School F AR #127/201 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Mayflower High School F AR #164/292 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayflower School District
• NCES district ID: 0509540
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,119
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6760
• State rank: #127 of 238 in AR

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Mayflower

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #22893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mayflower, AR
• County: Faulkner · 138,985 people
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,719
• Household income: $59,375
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada

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Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.62%
• Current HPI: 236.6197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options: VA loan, Conventional loan, or Cash

Exterior

• Parking: GarageParking pads2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Frame construction
• Construction: Frame exteriorComposition roofCrawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Screened porchOutside storage areaLevel lotLake viewLakefrontGravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Surface range
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatCentral electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer connectionElectric dryer connectionCeiling fansBreakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer connectionElectric dryer connection

Price history

+86.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $140,000 CARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $149,999 CARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $165,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $175,000 CARMLS
• 2022-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-03 Sold (MLS) $140,000 CARMLS
• 2022-09-29 Pending — CARMLS
• 2022-09-27 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2022-09-25 Listed $125,000 CARMLS
• 2021-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $95,500 Public Records
• 2021-05-04 Sold (MLS) $95,500 CARMLS
• 2021-04-05 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2021-03-29 Listed $110,000 CARMLS
• 2016-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-13 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CARMLS
• 2016-04-25 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2016-03-11 Listed $72,900 CARMLS
• 2016-03-09 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2015-11-11 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2015-10-20 Pending — CARMLS
• 2015-09-09 Listed $74,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $829 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.