25 Shoreline Dr · Mayflower, AR 72106

$140,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1971 $139/sqft · 21% below area Est $177k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect getaway or potential air bnb with private dock and lake Conway frontage with view and storage building! This home comes fully furnished including fishing gear and kayaks! NEW roof 2022, NEW siding 2022, NEW windows 2022, Screen porch updated in 2022, HVAC 2019, WH 2018 and so many more updates! -see attached docs

Key facts

• Lakefront retreat
• Refreshed interior
• Newly added driveway

Tags

• LAKEFRONT RETREAT
• PRIVATE DOCK
• WATERFRONT LIVING
• REFRESHED INTERIOR
• OPEN LAYOUT
• NEWLY ADDED DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options: VA loan, Conventional loan, or Cash

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; Parking pads; 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Frame construction
• Construction: Frame exterior; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Outside storage area; Level lot; Lake view; Lakefront; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Surface range
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Ceiling fans; Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.8% in Mayflower — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#390 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mayflower School District (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #127 of 238 in AR (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.34%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,629
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -20.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
49 Lake Forest Dr	0.30mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,040 (+3%)	2mo	$155,000	$149	72
33 Hwy 89	0.47mi	2/2.0 (+1)	942 (-6%)	9mo	$75,000	$80	50
13 Lakeview Cir	0.16mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (+13%)	22mo	$220,000	$193	48
15 Pine Tree Loop	0.70mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+7%)	6mo	$100,000	$93	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $87,827
• Equity at exit: $122,238

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.27×
• Total profit: $245,629
• Equity at exit: $259,584

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72106

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,394 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $829/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,091

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $140,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Price Change 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Price Change 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Price Change 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Price Change 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricestatusdays on market $140,000 Price Change 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,999 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,999 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,999 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,999 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $165,000 799-char remark
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $175,000 New Listing 799-char remark
18. 2022-11-07
    soldstatus $140,000
19. 2022-11-03
    soldstatus $140,000 Sold 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Perfect getaway or potential air bnb with private dock and lake Conway frontage with view and storage building! This home comes fully furnished including fishing gear and kayaks! NEW roof 2022, NEW siding 2022, NEW windows 2022, Screen porch updated in 2022, HVAC 2019, WH 2018 and so many more updates! -see attached docs

20. 2022-09-29
    status Under Contract 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Perfect getaway or potential air bnb with private dock and lake Conway frontage with view and storage building! This home comes fully furnished including fishing gear and kayaks! NEW roof 2022, NEW siding 2022, NEW windows 2022, Screen porch updated in 2022, HVAC 2019, WH 2018 and so many more updates! -see attached docs

21. 2022-09-27
    historical Take Backups 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Perfect getaway or potential air bnb with private dock and lake Conway frontage with view and storage building! This home comes fully furnished including fishing gear and kayaks! NEW roof 2022, NEW siding 2022, NEW windows 2022, Screen porch updated in 2022, HVAC 2019, WH 2018 and so many more updates! -see attached docs

22. 2022-09-25
    listed $125,000 New Listing 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Perfect getaway or potential air bnb with private dock and lake Conway frontage with view and storage building! This home comes fully furnished including fishing gear and kayaks! NEW roof 2022, NEW siding 2022, NEW windows 2022, Screen porch updated in 2022, HVAC 2019, WH 2018 and so many more updates! -see attached docs

23. 2021-05-12
    soldstatus $95,500
24. 2021-05-04
    soldstatus $95,500 Sold

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Perfect home/investment opportunity on Lake Conway. Offers 1 bed/1.5 baths w/ huge front screened in patio over looking the lake. Home has private dock. Call for a showing today!

25. 2021-04-05
    historical

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Perfect home/investment opportunity on Lake Conway. Offers 1 bed/1.5 baths w/ huge front screened in patio over looking the lake. Home has private dock. Call for a showing today!

26. 2021-03-29
    listed $110,000 New Listing

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Perfect home/investment opportunity on Lake Conway. Offers 1 bed/1.5 baths w/ huge front screened in patio over looking the lake. Home has private dock. Call for a showing today!

27. 2016-06-15
    soldstatus $65,000
28. 2016-06-13
    soldstatus $65,000 Sold
29. 2016-04-25
    historical Take Backups
30. 2016-03-11
    listed $72,900 New Listing
31. 2016-03-09
    historical
32. 2015-11-11
    status Back on Market
33. 2015-10-20
    status Under Contract
34. 2015-09-09
    listed $74,900 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $896 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$67/yr (+$6/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$829
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,338
• − Management: −$1,338
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $610
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$146
• After-tax cash flow: $2,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayflower School District
• NCES district ID: 0509540
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,119
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6760
• State rank: #127 of 238 in AR

Livability — Mayflower

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #22893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mayflower, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,719

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.62%
• Current HPI: 236.6197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+86.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $140,000 CARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $149,999 CARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $165,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $175,000 CARMLS
• 2022-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-03 Sold (MLS) $140,000 CARMLS
• 2022-09-29 Pending — CARMLS
• 2022-09-27 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2022-09-25 Listed $125,000 CARMLS
• 2021-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $95,500 Public Records
• 2021-05-04 Sold (MLS) $95,500 CARMLS
• 2021-04-05 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2021-03-29 Listed $110,000 CARMLS
• 2016-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-13 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CARMLS
• 2016-04-25 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2016-03-11 Listed $72,900 CARMLS
• 2016-03-09 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2015-11-11 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2015-10-20 Pending — CARMLS
• 2015-09-09 Listed $74,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $829 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.