Annapolis Plan · Palmetto, FL 34221

$285,940

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily · 199 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

In this single-story home, the kitchen, dining room and family room cohesively flow together with a contemporary open floorplan. The adjacent owner's suite offers a comfortable place to relax with a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide space for the rest of the family.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $285,940 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $340,177.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $286k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-666 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1708 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,701 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,177
• List price: $285,940
• Delta: -16.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6434 Milestone Loop	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-1%)	3mo	$320,000	$223	78
6236 Springmont Loop	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+0%)	5mo	$368,900	$254	70
5807 Laurelcrest Gln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+0%)	12mo	$337,999	$232	57
5803 Laurelcrest Gln	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,455 (+0%)	11mo	$324,999	$223	52
11240 Fieldstone Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,432 (-1%)	14mo	$395,000	$276	51
6247 Springmont Loop	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,453 (+0%)	23mo	$325,000	$224	50
11268 Fieldstone Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,432 (-1%)	16mo	$300,000	$209	50
6223 Springmont Loop	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+10%)	13mo	$290,000	$182	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-103,958
• Equity at exit: $50,721

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.78×
• Total profit: $-169,944
• Equity at exit: $29,412

Cash invested: $95,250 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.3 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $347,000 ($229/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1708
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,217 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,784
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,103/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-666

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,060

Max offer price $243,819

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-431	-5% $-548	+0% $-666	+5% $-783	+10% $-901
Rent	-10% $-841	-5% $-753	+0% $-666	+5% $-578	+10% $-491
Rate	-1.0pp $-495	-0.5pp $-579	base $-666	+0.5pp $-754	+1.0pp $-844

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,044
• Closing costs: $10,205
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11212 65th Ter E Unit 11212 Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,250	$1.35	10d	1	0.26mi
11075 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,100	$1.26	123d	1	0.26mi
11332 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,300	$1.38	1d	1	0.28mi
11332 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,300	$1.38	164d	1	0.28mi
11331 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,090	$1.25	152d	1	0.30mi
10983 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,100	$1.26	10d	1	0.32mi
10911 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,150	$1.29	10d	1	0.34mi
6425 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,100	$1.49	25d	1	0.48mi
6417 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,995	$1.45	108d	1	0.49mi
6345 Willowside St Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,200	$1.56	164d	1	0.52mi
6354 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1123	$2,000	$1.78	0d	1	0.55mi
6354 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1123	$2,000	$1.78	164d	1	0.55mi
6334 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1235	$1,795	$1.45	144d	1	0.56mi
6330 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1120	$1,890	$1.69	7d	1	0.56mi
6357 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,900	$1.56	2d	1	0.56mi
6329 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1116	$2,000	$1.79	116d	1	0.57mi
11747 Stonesmith Xing Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1120	$1,750	$1.56	52d	1	0.57mi
11747 Stonesmith Xing Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1128	$1,750	$1.55	10d	1	0.57mi
11747 Stonesmith Xing Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1128	$1,750	$1.55	13d	1	0.57mi
11207 Fieldstone Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,350	$1.48	37d	1	0.58mi
11842 Stonesmith Xing Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1120	$1,700	$1.52	35d	1	0.58mi
11842 Stonesmith Xing Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1128	$1,750	$1.55	46d	1	0.58mi
6256 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,845	$1.52	155d	1	0.59mi
6248 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,850	$1.52	10d	1	0.59mi
6249 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,750	$1.46	32d	1	0.61mi
6104 Willowside St Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1859	$2,400	$1.29	55d	1	0.61mi
11720 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	164d	1	0.62mi
6318 Whetstone Ct Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1128	$1,950	$1.73	2d	1	0.62mi
11731 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1394	$2,100	$1.51	127d	1	0.63mi
6266 Whetstone Ct Palmetto, FL	2.0	3.0	1165	$1,900	$1.63	110d	1	0.63mi
6266 Whetstone Ct Unit 1 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1165	$1,900	$1.63	125d	1	0.63mi
6106 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1116	$1,800	$1.61	108d	1	0.64mi
11779 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1394	$2,100	$1.51	133d	1	0.68mi
11787 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	162d	1	0.69mi
11820 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1382	$2,100	$1.52	157d	1	0.71mi
11832 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,025	$1.29	138d	1	0.72mi
11922 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,300	$1.47	10d	1	0.73mi
11922 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,300	$1.47	2d	1	0.73mi
11922 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,300	$1.47	23d	1	0.73mi
10340 Oakside Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1396	$1,950	$1.40	35d	1	0.74mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $315,840

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan (Annapolis)Single-family plan model
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,448

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home (Annapolis)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $285,940 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-11-08
   price $285,940 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-11-07
   days on market $285,690 Active 198 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   days on market $285,690 Active 197 DOM
5. 2026-11-05
   days on market $285,690 Active 196 DOM
6. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $285,690 Active 195 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $303,140 Active 193 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $303,140 Active 192 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $303,140 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $303,140 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $303,140 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $303,140 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $303,140 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $303,140 Active 186 DOM
15. 2026-10-25
    days on market $303,140 Active 185 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $303,140 Active 184 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $303,140 Active 183 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $303,140 Active 182 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $303,140 Active 181 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $303,140 Active 180 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $303,140 Active 179 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $303,140 Active 178 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $303,140 Active 177 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $303,140 Active 176 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $303,140 Active 175 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $303,140 Active 174 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    price $303,140 Active 173 DOM
28. 2026-10-13
    days on market $301,140 Active 173 DOM
29. 2026-10-12
    days on market $301,140 Active 172 DOM
30. 2026-10-11
    days on market $301,140 Active 171 DOM
31. 2026-10-10
    pricedays on market $301,140 Active 170 DOM
32. 2026-10-09
    days on market $299,140 Active 169 DOM
33. 2026-10-08
    days on market $299,140 Active 168 DOM
34. 2026-10-07
    days on market $299,140 Active 167 DOM
35. 2026-10-06
    days on market $299,140 Active 166 DOM
36. 2026-10-05
    days on market $299,140 Active 165 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $299,140 Active 164 DOM
38. 2026-10-03
    days on market $299,140 Active 163 DOM
39. 2026-10-02
    days on market $299,140 Active 162 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    days on market $299,140 Active 161 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    pricedays on market $299,140 Active 160 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $313,140 Active 159 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $313,140 Active 158 DOM
44. 2026-09-27
    days on market $313,140 Active 157 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $313,140 Active 155 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $313,140 Active 154 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    pricedays on market $313,140 Active 152 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $327,140 Active 151 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $327,140 Active 150 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $327,140 Active 149 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,055
• − Property taxes: −$5,103
• − Insurance: −$2,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,128
• − Management: −$2,128
• − Depreciation: −$9,896
• Taxable loss: −$14,205
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,409
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home features a contemporary open floorplan with modern kitchen and bathrooms. It is in good condition with minimal maintenance required, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing old tile with a more modern material can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen with new appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Integrating smart home technology can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $315,840

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan (Annapolis)Single-family plan model
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,448

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home (Annapolis)