320 Lutzke Rd · Shields, MI 48609

$69,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,727 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1910 0.64 ac lot $40/sqft · 65% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-family property offers a solid opportunity for investors seeking long-term rental potential or value-add upside. Built in 1910, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms across a spacious living space, providing a functional layout suitable for a variety of renovation approaches. The property sits on an oversized 0.64-acre lot, offering more than half an acre of land, which is a notable feature for this area and adds long-term appeal. The age and size of the home allow for flexibility in updating while preserving character. The lot size provides additional options for outdoor use, storage, or future improvements, subject to local approvals. Located in Saginaw, Michigan, the property is positioned within an established area with existing housing stock and long-term rental demand.

Key facts

• Oversized lot
• 0.64 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• MORE THAN HALF AN ACRE
• LONG TERM RENTAL POTENTIAL
• LONG TERM RENTAL DEMAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $884 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 4.5% in Shields — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in MI, #1,310 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Swan Valley School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #104 of 540 in MI (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $69k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $60,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.93%
• DSCR: 3.44
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,374
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -64.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
370 Adams Rd	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,700 (-2%)	2mo	$249,000	$146	66
7245 Burmeister	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,650 (-4%)	10mo	$242,500	$147	64
640 Lutzke Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,933 (+12%)	2mo	$262,000	$136	62
1140 Curwood Rd	0.50mi	4/1.5	1,660 (-4%)	12mo	$252,000	$152	58
682 Cheryl St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (+3%)	3mo	$248,000	$139	57
7182 Ronald Dr	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,560 (-10%)	2mo	$189,500	$121	57
7782 Luann St	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,719 (-0%)	9mo	$220,000	$128	57
7165 Burmeister Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,532 (-11%)	0mo	$263,000	$172	56
833 Fritzler Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,807 (+5%)	6mo	$200,000	$111	47
7200 Danny Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,872 (+8%)	11mo	$220,000	$118	47
7168 Deborah Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,864 (+8%)	8mo	$185,000	$99	47
365 S Miller Rd	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,963 (+14%)	12mo	$162,000	$83	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $45,143
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $111,837
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48609

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,672 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $549/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $884

Break-even live

Break-even rent $552

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $923	-5% $904	+0% $884	+5% $865	+10% $845
Rent	-10% $752	-5% $818	+0% $884	+5% $950	+10% $1,016
Rate	-1.0pp $919	-0.5pp $902	base $884	+0.5pp $866	+1.0pp $848

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,000 Active 112 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    price $69,000 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    This single-family property offers a solid opportunity for investors seeking long-term rental potential or value-add upside. Built in 1910, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms across a spacious living space, providing a functional layout suitable for a variety of renovation approaches. The property sits on an oversized 0.64-acre lot, offering more than half an acre of land, which is a notable feature for this area and adds long-term appeal. The age and size of the home allow for flexibility in updating while preserving character. The lot size provides additional options for outdoor use, storage, or future improvements, subject to local approvals. Located in Saginaw, Michigan, the property is positioned within an established area with existing housing stock and long-term rental demand.

18. 2026-05-11
    price $69,000 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    This single-family property offers a solid opportunity for investors seeking long-term rental potential or value-add upside. Built in 1910, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms across a spacious living space, providing a functional layout suitable for a variety of renovation approaches. The property sits on an oversized 0.64-acre lot, offering more than half an acre of land, which is a notable feature for this area and adds long-term appeal. The age and size of the home allow for flexibility in updating while preserving character. The lot size provides additional options for outdoor use, storage, or future improvements, subject to local approvals. Located in Saginaw, Michigan, the property is positioned within an established area with existing housing stock and long-term rental demand.

19. 2026-05-11
    price $69,000

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    This single-family property offers a solid opportunity for investors seeking long-term rental potential or value-add upside. Built in 1910, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms across a spacious living space, providing a functional layout suitable for a variety of renovation approaches. The property sits on an oversized 0.64-acre lot, offering more than half an acre of land, which is a notable feature for this area and adds long-term appeal. The age and size of the home allow for flexibility in updating while preserving character. The lot size provides additional options for outdoor use, storage, or future improvements, subject to local approvals. Located in Saginaw, Michigan, the property is positioned within an established area with existing housing stock and long-term rental demand.

20. 2026-03-21
    price $72,500 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    This single-family property offers a solid opportunity for investors seeking long-term rental potential or value-add upside. Built in 1910, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms across a spacious living space, providing a functional layout suitable for a variety of renovation approaches. The property sits on an oversized 0.64-acre lot, offering more than half an acre of land, which is a notable feature for this area and adds long-term appeal. The age and size of the home allow for flexibility in updating while preserving character. The lot size provides additional options for outdoor use, storage, or future improvements, subject to local approvals. Located in Saginaw, Michigan, the property is positioned within an established area with existing housing stock and long-term rental demand.

21. 2026-03-20
    price $72,500 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    This single-family property offers a solid opportunity for investors seeking long-term rental potential or value-add upside. Built in 1910, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms across a spacious living space, providing a functional layout suitable for a variety of renovation approaches. The property sits on an oversized 0.64-acre lot, offering more than half an acre of land, which is a notable feature for this area and adds long-term appeal. The age and size of the home allow for flexibility in updating while preserving character. The lot size provides additional options for outdoor use, storage, or future improvements, subject to local approvals. Located in Saginaw, Michigan, the property is positioned within an established area with existing housing stock and long-term rental demand.

22. 2026-03-20
    price $72,500

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    This single-family property offers a solid opportunity for investors seeking long-term rental potential or value-add upside. Built in 1910, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms across a spacious living space, providing a functional layout suitable for a variety of renovation approaches. The property sits on an oversized 0.64-acre lot, offering more than half an acre of land, which is a notable feature for this area and adds long-term appeal. The age and size of the home allow for flexibility in updating while preserving character. The lot size provides additional options for outdoor use, storage, or future improvements, subject to local approvals. Located in Saginaw, Michigan, the property is positioned within an established area with existing housing stock and long-term rental demand.

23. 2026-02-07
    listed $76,800 Active 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    This single-family property offers a solid opportunity for investors seeking long-term rental potential or value-add upside. Built in 1910, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms across a spacious living space, providing a functional layout suitable for a variety of renovation approaches. The property sits on an oversized 0.64-acre lot, offering more than half an acre of land, which is a notable feature for this area and adds long-term appeal. The age and size of the home allow for flexibility in updating while preserving character. The lot size provides additional options for outdoor use, storage, or future improvements, subject to local approvals. Located in Saginaw, Michigan, the property is positioned within an established area with existing housing stock and long-term rental demand.

24. 2026-02-07
    listed $76,800 Active 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    This single-family property offers a solid opportunity for investors seeking long-term rental potential or value-add upside. Built in 1910, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms across a spacious living space, providing a functional layout suitable for a variety of renovation approaches. The property sits on an oversized 0.64-acre lot, offering more than half an acre of land, which is a notable feature for this area and adds long-term appeal. The age and size of the home allow for flexibility in updating while preserving character. The lot size provides additional options for outdoor use, storage, or future improvements, subject to local approvals. Located in Saginaw, Michigan, the property is positioned within an established area with existing housing stock and long-term rental demand.

25. 2026-02-07
    listed $76,800 Active

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    This single-family property offers a solid opportunity for investors seeking long-term rental potential or value-add upside. Built in 1910, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms across a spacious living space, providing a functional layout suitable for a variety of renovation approaches. The property sits on an oversized 0.64-acre lot, offering more than half an acre of land, which is a notable feature for this area and adds long-term appeal. The age and size of the home allow for flexibility in updating while preserving character. The lot size provides additional options for outdoor use, storage, or future improvements, subject to local approvals. Located in Saginaw, Michigan, the property is positioned within an established area with existing housing stock and long-term rental demand.

26. 2014-07-18
    soldstatus $23,500
27. 2014-07-18
    soldstatus $23,500
28. 2014-07-15
    historical
29. 2013-11-25
    listed $25,000
30. 2013-11-25
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $549 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $806 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$257/yr (+$21/mo · 46.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$549
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,605
• − Management: −$1,605
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $10,085
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,420
• After-tax cash flow: $8,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Swan Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2633410
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,994
• Composite: 42.38/100
• National rank: #3241
• State rank: #104 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shields

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #1310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shields, MI
• Population (ZIP): 12,206

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.03%
• Current HPI: 179.2881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+176.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $69,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $69,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $69,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $72,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $72,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $72,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $76,800 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-07 Listed $76,800 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $76,800 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-07-18 Sold (MLS) $23,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-07-18 Sold (MLS) $23,500 REALCOMP
• 2014-07-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-11-25 Listed $25,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-11-25 Listed $25,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $549 · -82.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.