39820 US Highway 19 N #99 · Tarpon Springs, FL 34689

$127,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1976 39 ac lot Est $150k · 15% under $380/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A WELL CARED FOR 2 BED AND 2 BATH HOME. THE HOME HAS A NEWER AIR CONDITIONER, AN OVER ROOF, A SCREENED IN FLORIDA ROOM AND A BRICKED DRIVE WAY. STONEHEDGE IS A SOUGHT AFTER 55 PLUS CO-OP M/H PARK WITH A CLUBHOUSE, HEATED POOL, AND SHUFFLE BOARD. THIS HOME IS FULLY FURNISHED, READY TO MOVE INTO. NEAR SHOPPING BEACHES AND MORE. COME AND ENJOY FLORIDA SUNSHINE.

Key facts

• Updated vinyl siding
• New appliances
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• NEW WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• UPDATED VINYL SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.4% in Tarpon Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $884 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $128k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,389 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.76%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,760
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
271 Northgate Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0	936 (-2%)	13mo	$146,000	$156	67
39820 US Highway 19 N #9	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+15%)	11mo	$145,000	$131	66
219 Seagull Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+5%)	8mo	$130,000	$129	65
237 Harmony Way	0.34mi	2/2.0	989 (+3%)	18mo	$160,000	$162	64
39820 US Highway 19 N #43	0.00mi	2/2.0	816 (-15%)	17mo	$122,500	$150	61
116 Rachel Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0	866 (-10%)	19mo	$160,000	$185	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,124
• Equity at exit: $19,070

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,960
• Equity at exit: $11,058

Cash invested: $35,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34689

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $539/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$380
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,454

Max offer price $127,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $334	-5% $298	+0% $261	+5% $225	+10% $189
Rent	-10% $120	-5% $191	+0% $261	+5% $332	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $326	-0.5pp $294	base $261	+0.5pp $228	+1.0pp $194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,975
• Closing costs: $3,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39650 US Highway 19 N #141 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,550	$1.63	5d	1	0.10mi
640 Haven Pl #640 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,595	$1.66	8d	1	0.44mi
673 Haven Pl #673 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,450	$1.51	15d	1	0.48mi
501 Saint Michaels Way Unit 520 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	24d	1	0.54mi
1113 E Lime St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	4d	1	0.73mi
524 E Lime St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,600	$2.06	24d	1	0.73mi
1185 S Pinellas Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,154	$2.12	2d	21	0.82mi
650 E Tarpon Ave Unit C1 Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	8d	1	0.86mi
320 S Grosse Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,749	$1.87	24d	1	0.90mi
316 E Boyer St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,749	$1.87	24d	1	0.92mi
1250 S Pinellas Ave #504 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	565	$1,099	$1.95	24d	1	1.05mi
825 Cypress St Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,723	$2.30	3d	6	1.11mi
329 Moorings Cove Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,700	$1.67	21d	1	1.11mi
1990 Carolina Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	22d	1	1.20mi
101 W Lemon St Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,450	$2.23	5d	1	1.22mi
101 W Lemon St Apt 3 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,350	$2.08	22d	1	1.22mi
101 W Lemon St Unit 4 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,450	$2.23	15d	1	1.22mi
812 Bayou Ave Unit B Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	675	$1,450	$2.15	24d	1	1.30mi
707 E Spruce St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	967	$1,700	$1.76	11d	1	1.31mi
103 E Park St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	999	$3,000	$3.00	24d	1	1.31mi
817 Margo St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,600	$2.02	24d	1	1.33mi
2350 Cypress Pond Rd Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,670	$2.11	2d	54	1.37mi
605 Lennox Rd W Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,950	$1.86	3d	1	1.38mi
105 S Spring Blvd Unit 10 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	24d	1	1.40mi
2571 Cyprus Dr Unit 1-101 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	755	$1,900	$2.52	22d	1	1.42mi
2587 Cyprus Dr Unit 3-214 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	825	$2,000	$2.42	24d	1	1.42mi
2571 Cyprus Dr Unit 1-202 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$2,800	$2.87	24d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $380 · $4,560/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $127,900
3. 2026-03-27
   status Active
4. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-28
   price $129,900
6. 2026-01-22
   price $139,900
7. 2026-01-01
   listed $145,000 Active
8. 2014-05-02
   soldstatus $68,000 Sold 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   A WELL CARED FOR 2 BED AND 2 BATH HOME. THE HOME HAS A NEWER AIR CONDITIONER, AN OVER ROOF, A SCREENED IN FLORIDA ROOM AND A BRICKED DRIVE WAY. STONEHEDGE IS A SOUGHT AFTER 55 PLUS CO-OP M/H PARK WITH A CLUBHOUSE, HEATED POOL, AND SHUFFLE BOARD. THIS HOME IS FULLY FURNISHED, READY TO MOVE INTO. NEAR SHOPPING BEACHES AND MORE. COME AND ENJOY FLORIDA SUNSHINE.

9. 2014-04-02
   status Pending 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   A WELL CARED FOR 2 BED AND 2 BATH HOME. THE HOME HAS A NEWER AIR CONDITIONER, AN OVER ROOF, A SCREENED IN FLORIDA ROOM AND A BRICKED DRIVE WAY. STONEHEDGE IS A SOUGHT AFTER 55 PLUS CO-OP M/H PARK WITH A CLUBHOUSE, HEATED POOL, AND SHUFFLE BOARD. THIS HOME IS FULLY FURNISHED, READY TO MOVE INTO. NEAR SHOPPING BEACHES AND MORE. COME AND ENJOY FLORIDA SUNSHINE.

10. 2014-03-21
    listed $60,000 Active 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    A WELL CARED FOR 2 BED AND 2 BATH HOME. THE HOME HAS A NEWER AIR CONDITIONER, AN OVER ROOF, A SCREENED IN FLORIDA ROOM AND A BRICKED DRIVE WAY. STONEHEDGE IS A SOUGHT AFTER 55 PLUS CO-OP M/H PARK WITH A CLUBHOUSE, HEATED POOL, AND SHUFFLE BOARD. THIS HOME IS FULLY FURNISHED, READY TO MOVE INTO. NEAR SHOPPING BEACHES AND MORE. COME AND ENJOY FLORIDA SUNSHINE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $539 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,062 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$523/yr (+$44/mo · 96.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,164
• − Property taxes: −$539
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − HOA: −$4,560
• − Depreciation: −$3,721
• Taxable income: $1,370
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$329
• After-tax cash flow: $2,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tarpon Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #9244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tarpon Springs, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 27,324
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,324
• Household income: $74,854
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.96%
• Current HPI: 303.7434
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.16%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+113.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $127,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-02 Sold (MLS) $68,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-21 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $539 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.