The Audrey Plan · Winnsboro, TX 75480

$348,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,520 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Audrey boasts approximately 3520 square feet under roof, a huge wrap around porch and a porte-cochere designed to store an RV. The porte-cochere is 14' tall, 12' wide and 40' deep, plenty of room for an RV. Storing your boats, classic cars, RV or lake toys inside the Boat Barn is easy with the two 14' tall garage doors for access. The driveway is large and wide making backing up anything on a trailer a breeze. The Living quarters has a full kitchen, den, 2 bedrooms and a bath and a loft upstairs. Still time to customize for your particular needs.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 955 days

🏗️ New construction. The $348,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $1,534,773.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $348k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9k ($-106k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (35.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate -0.6% vs local median 3.8% in Winnsboro — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#416 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mount Vernon ISD (town): math 49% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #251 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mt Vernon El (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 610 students, 70% FRL); Mt Vernon Middle (math 52% / reading 43%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 472 students, 72% FRL); Mt Vernon H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 489 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $89k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $79k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$143k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 6.6% of price.

Recommended offer $224,519 (35.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.15% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -24.66%
• DSCR: -0.10
• GRM: 57.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,534,773
• List price: $348,000
• Delta: -77.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-197,702
• Equity at exit: $881,527

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-116,032
• Equity at exit: $1,531,234

Cash invested: $429,736 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75480

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,918 /mo · $23,022/yr
• Insurance: −$639
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-8,833

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,426

Max offer price $256,658

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7,772	-5% $-8,302	+0% $-8,833	+5% $-9,363	+10% $-9,893
Rent	-10% $-9,010	-5% $-8,921	+0% $-8,833	+5% $-8,744	+10% $-8,655
Rate	-1.0pp $-8,060	-0.5pp $-8,442	base $-8,833	+0.5pp $-9,230	+1.0pp $-9,635

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $383,693
• Closing costs: $46,043
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $348,000 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $348,000 Active 954 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $348,000 Active 953 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $348,000 Active 952 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $348,000 Active 951 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $348,000 Active 950 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $348,000 Active 948 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $348,000 Active 947 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $348,000 Active 944 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $348,000 Active 943 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $348,000 Active 942 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $348,000 Active 940 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $348,000 Active 937 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $348,000 Active 936 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $348,000 Active 935 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $348,000 Active 934 DOM
17. 2023-11-08
    listed $348,000 Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    The Audrey boasts approximately 3520 square feet under roof, a huge wrap around porch and a porte-cochere designed to store an RV. The porte-cochere is 14' tall, 12' wide and 40' deep, plenty of room for an RV. Storing your boats, classic cars, RV or lake toys inside the Boat Barn is easy with the two 14' tall garage doors for access. The driveway is large and wide making backing up anything on a trailer a breeze. The Living quarters has a full kitchen, den, 2 bedrooms and a bath and a loft upstairs. Still time to customize for your particular needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$85,971
• − Property taxes: −$23,022
• − Insurance: −$7,674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − Depreciation: −$44,648
• Taxable loss: −$138,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$33,284
• After-tax cash flow: $-72,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Vernon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831770
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,788
• Composite: 39.19/100
• National rank: #4021
• State rank: #251 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winnsboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #8564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,787

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,621 people
• By 2030: 10,648 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 10,629 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 10,486 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 10,038 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 8,816 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% German 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.9) · D 15.3% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -52.5pp · 2024: -68.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.9 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+63.4 2008: R+52.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.13%
• Current HPI: 234.5679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-11-08 Listed $348,000 Zillow