33 Mercedes Dr · Gates, NY 14624

$199,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1954 0.25 ac lot Est $295k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right in! 4 bedrm cape! Hardwood flrs in 1st level under rugs! Heated breezeway with new flooring & slider to deck! Kitchen new countertops, backsplash & flooring! New bathroom! all new carpet! All fresh paint! Newer roof! 2 car driveway with 1 car garage attached. Clean basement! Whole house generator!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Mature landscaping
• Chef's kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• BUTCHER-BLOCK STYLE COUNTERS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Vinyl-sided; Existing/resale property; Block foundation; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 0.25 acre, 88x150)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Patio; Covered porch; Gazebo; Shed(s); Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermal windows; Living/dining room; Bedroom on main level; Main-level primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry in basement; Gas water heater; Generator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.9% in Gates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#582 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gates-Chili Central School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #491 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $200k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.58%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Laredo Dr	0.17mi	4/1.5	1,492 (-4%)	5mo	$230,000	$154	78
159 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,512 (-3%)	8mo	$250,000	$165	71
25 Bellmawr Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,608 (+3%)	1mo	$310,000	$193	70
52 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.47mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,590 (+2%)	1mo	$300,500	$189	67
162 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-4%)	8mo	$261,000	$174	63
34 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,494 (-4%)	4mo	$224,000	$150	62
71 Bellmawr Dr	0.27mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,429 (-8%)	8mo	$280,000	$196	60
104 Stover Rd	0.47mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,492 (-4%)	7mo	$285,000	$191	58
20 White Birch Cir	0.58mi	4/1.5	1,714 (+10%)	1mo	$350,000	$204	53
21 Red Bud Rd	0.75mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,582 (+1%)	8mo	$269,900	$171	49
271 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.62mi	4/1.5	1,364 (-13%)	8mo	$235,000	$172	42
53 Bright Oaks Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,356 (-13%)	6mo	$265,000	$195	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,279
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $26,529
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14624

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,557 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$442 /mo · $5,304/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,062

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $504	-5% $448	+0% $391	+5% $335	+10% $278
Rent	-10% $189	-5% $290	+0% $391	+5% $492	+10% $593
Rate	-1.0pp $492	-0.5pp $442	base $391	+0.5pp $340	+1.0pp $287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Red Bud Rd Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1568	$2,600	$1.66	20d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $199,900 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,304 · $442/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,304 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,304
• − Insurance: −$1,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,455
• − Management: −$2,455
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,797
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$431
• After-tax cash flow: $4,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gates-Chili Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611880
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,045
• Composite: 36.23/100
• National rank: #4719
• State rank: #491 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gates

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #582
• US rank: #10531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,626
• Household income: $87,989
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.26%
• Current HPI: 267.356
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+75.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $199,900 UNYREIS
• 2017-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-02 Sold (MLS) $108,000 UNYREIS
• 2017-01-27 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2016-11-30 Listed $114,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+18.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,304 · -9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.