Lot (2135) Macdonald Ave · North Bellport, NY 11713

$499,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,758 sqft · SingleFamily · 192 Days on market

Built 2023 7,405 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bellport New The Bentley 4 to be built. Quality Craftsmanship 4 BR 2.5 baths 2 story with front porch, choice of kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops, wood floors on 1st floor carpet in BRs, tiled baths, CAC, 200 amp service, full basement w/ OSE, attached 1 car garage, appliance credit. , Additional information: Appearance:New

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 2023
• Listed 192 days

🏗️ New construction. The $499,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $536,190.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($61k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $499k).
• Recommended offer: $439k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 4.9% in North Bellport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#842 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• South Country Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #460 of 755 in NY (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frank P Long Intermediate School (math 10% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,702 of 2,108 statewide, top 82%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Bellport Middle School (math 64% / reading 54%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 838 students, 56% FRL); Bellport Senior High School (math 86% / reading 64%, grade A-, #630 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 1,392 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $150k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $439,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.77%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $536,190
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
655 Bourdois Ave	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,758 (0%)	2mo	$499,000	$284	91
641 (2122) Bourdois Ave	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,758 (0%)	10mo	$550,000	$313	90
661 Bourdois Ave	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,758 (0%)	8mo	$499,990	$284	86
522 Scherger Ave	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,756 (-0%)	5mo	$550,000	$313	85
441 Macdonald Ave	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,854 (+6%)	5mo	$565,000	$305	76
333 Atlantic Ave	0.15mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,913 (+9%)	9mo	$475,000	$248	64
6 Danamarie Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,765 (+0%)	8mo	$796,000	$451	59
4 Danamarie Ln	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,722 (-2%)	1mo	$770,000	$447	58
35 Maple Ave	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (+2%)	3mo	$514,000	$286	56
805 Doane Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (-10%)	3mo	$405,000	$256	52
360 Munsell Rd	0.67mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,901 (+8%)	8mo	$570,000	$300	41
914 Doane Ave	0.65mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,000 (+14%)	9mo	$660,000	$330	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $238,142
• Equity at exit: $79,948

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $626,363
• Equity at exit: $46,360

Cash invested: $150,133 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11713

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,147 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$670 /mo · $8,043/yr
• Insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,341
• Net cashflow: $5,101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,690

Max offer price $536,190

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,048
• Closing costs: $16,086
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
262 N Dunton Ave East Patchogue, NY	3.0	1.0	1778	$3,900	$2.19	13d	1	0.95mi
58 N Howells Point Rd Bellport, NY	3.0	2.0	1404	$15,000	$10.68	19d	1	1.20mi
21 N Howells Point Rd Bellport, NY	3.0	3.5	2148	$20,000	$9.31	1d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2024-03-07
   status Pending
2. 2023-08-28
   listed $499,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $133,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,035
• − Property taxes: −$8,043
• − Insurance: −$2,681
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,701
• − Management: −$10,701
• − Depreciation: −$15,598
• Taxable income: $56,004
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13,441
• After-tax cash flow: $47,766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600008
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $74,049
• Composite: 44.75/100
• National rank: #5960
• State rank: #460 of 755 in NY

Livability — North Bellport

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #842
• US rank: #16345

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Bellport, NY
• City population: 9,236
• Population (ZIP): 9,236

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.23%
• Current HPI: 421.2165
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-28 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid