80 Nm 233 · Medanales, NM 87548

$124,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,898 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

1.06 ac lot ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Fabulous views set the stage for this rare Northern New Mexico opportunity a soulful adobe with classic vigas, sitting on a little over an acre of greenbelt land just a short 700-foot stroll to the Rio Chama. Once envisioned as a forever home and a quiet piece of heaven, the property retains thoughtful touches from a prior owner, including a charming chicken coop, corrals, and a shed reminders of a life imagined close to the land. Irrigation ditch adjoins property. Built in 2007 with a dream, this home now stands as a true blank canvas awaiting its next visionary steward. The open concept layout features a striking grand staircase leading to an upper level filled with natural light from soa

Key facts

• Greenbelt land
• Grand staircase
• Classic vigas

Tags

• SOULFUL ADOBE
• CLASSIC VIGAS
• GREENBELT LAND
• CHARMING CHICKEN COOP
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRAND STAIRCASE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Propane available; Holding tank sewer
• Home design: Two-story single family residence; Adobe construction
• Construction: Built with adobe construction
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 1.06 acres; County zoning

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Two fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($725/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($857 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Rio Arriba County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $109,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.09%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $18,802
• Equity at exit: $55,756

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $61,585
• Equity at exit: $85,926

Cash invested: $34,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87548

• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,161 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$155 /mo · $1,860/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,085

Max offer price $124,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $103	+0% $60	+5% $18	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-31	-5% $15	+0% $60	+5% $106	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $92	base $60	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,000
• Closing costs: $3,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   price $124,000
3. 2026-02-06
   price $149,000
4. 2025-12-23
   listed $170,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,946
• − Property taxes: −$1,860
• − Insurance: −$620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,115
• − Management: −$1,115
• − Depreciation: −$3,607
• Taxable loss: −$1,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$319
• After-tax cash flow: $1,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Medanales

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Medanales, NM
• City population: 921
• Population (ZIP): 921

Population outlook (Rio Arriba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,893 people
• By 2030: 35,060 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 31,035 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 27,056 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 19,056 · -48.3%
• By 2100: 12,332 · -66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 18% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Dominican 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 70%

Political lean MEDSL · Rio Arriba

• 2024 margin: D (+19.4) · D 58.6% · R 39.2% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.4pp toward R · 2008: 50.9pp · 2024: 19.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.4 2020: D+33.6 2016: D+40.3 2012: D+52.6 2008: D+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-27.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — TCAR
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $124,000 TCAR
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $149,000 TCAR
• 2025-12-23 Listed $170,000 TCAR