521 Mallard Ct · Poinciana, FL 34759

$119,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,581 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2019 0.27 ac lot $91/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 53% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special! Rare opportunity to acquire a fire-damaged property on a spacious corner lot with tremendous redevelopment potential. The existing structure sustained significant fire damage and is being sold strictly As-Is. Ideal for investors, builders, contractors, or anyone seeking their next renovation or rebuild project. Situated on a desirable corner homesite, this property offers a head start with existing utilities, driveway, and established footprint already in place. Whether you choose to renovate, rebuild, or explore other development possibilities, this property presents an excellent value-add opportunity in a growing area. Buyer is responsible for conducting all due diligenc

Key facts

• Existing utilities
• Spacious corner lot
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
• EXISTING UTILITIES
• ESTABLISHED FOOTPRINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• Financial info: Monthly HOA $91; Total monthly fees listed as $91; Total annual fees listed as $1,092
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $91); Association name: Mark Maldonado; Association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Water available; No water source listed
• Home design: Single Family Residence; One story; Faces northwest; PUD zoning; Homestead exemption
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as single-story (one level)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.27%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,205
• Equity at exit: $26,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $26,933
• Equity at exit: $25,283

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$91
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,466

Max offer price $119,999

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
435 Magpie Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1413	$1,725	$1.22	23d	1	0.27mi
568 Kingfisher Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,750	$1.37	23d	1	0.28mi
567 Hummingbird Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2113	$2,000	$0.95	14d	1	0.35mi
568 Finch Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1904	$1,800	$0.95	23d	1	0.57mi
442 Flamingo Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,695	$1.16	23d	1	0.60mi
1405 Teal Ct Poinciana, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,700	$1.06	23d	1	0.60mi
606 Robin Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1513	$1,750	$1.16	14d	1	0.60mi
606 Robin Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1513	$1,750	$1.16	23d	1	0.60mi
445 Eagle Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,839	$1.16	21d	1	0.65mi
539 Finch Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$1,749	$0.94	10d	1	0.67mi
539 Finch Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$1,749	$0.94	23d	1	0.67mi
575 Eagle Ct Unit 116 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,000	$0.85	3d	1	0.69mi
557 Eagle Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1672	$2,000	$1.20	3d	1	0.70mi
426 Eagle Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,995	$1.14	23d	1	0.70mi
1431 Teal Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2215	$2,445	$1.10	2d	1	0.73mi
510 Eagle Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,650	$1.24	23d	1	0.74mi
701 Pelican Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,785	$1.17	19d	1	0.76mi
723 Parrot Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,850	$1.21	23d	1	0.83mi
601 Dunlin Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,064	$1.18	3d	1	0.83mi
754 Pelican Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,695	$1.30	3d	1	0.85mi
747 Pelican Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2113	$2,100	$0.99	14d	1	0.87mi
535 Cardinal Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1647	$1,774	$1.08	3d	1	0.88mi
612 Bluebill Ct Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,650	$1.42	3d	1	0.97mi
514 Blackbird Ln Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,600	$1.15	21d	1	1.00mi
510 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,599	$1.32	23d	1	1.00mi
510 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,650	$1.37	10d	1	1.00mi
517 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,530	$1.17	23d	1	1.03mi
519 Blackbird Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	23d	1	1.03mi
627 Bluebill Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,760	$1.23	23d	1	1.03mi
539 Albatross Dr Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,500	$1.23	23d	1	1.05mi
702 Bluebill Pl Unit A Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,650	$1.33	23d	1	1.05mi
411 Blackbird Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	23d	1	1.06mi
627B Bittern Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	12d	1	1.06mi
627 Bittern Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	3d	1	1.06mi
439 Albatross Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,700	$1.26	23d	1	1.07mi
639 Bittern Ct Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,730	$0.94	19d	1	1.08mi
504 Albatross Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	23d	1	1.10mi
504 Albatross Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	3d	1	1.10mi
401 Albatross Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	23d	1	1.12mi
736 Bittern Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,775	$1.48	23d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $91 · $1,092/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $119,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,150 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,150 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$2,102
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − HOA: −$1,092
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,433
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$584
• After-tax cash flow: $3,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-53.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $119,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-30 Price Changed $369,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-17 Listed $389,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $256,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+33.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,150 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.