8393 Sioux Trl SW · Meadow Brook, MN 56479

$69,500

2 bd · None ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2020 Fair condition 3.40 ac lot $37/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

From Motley, head west on MN-210 W for approximately 7 miles. Turn left onto 80th Ave SW, then continue south for about 1 mile. Welcome to Wilderness Park! This beautiful 3.4-acre property is not only a great recreational getaway but also offers the opportunity to build a permanent home. Featuring two cabins on the property, there is plenty of space for relaxing, entertaining, and storing all your recreational gear. Located just miles from Spider Lake, one of Minnesota’s popular ATV and outdoor recreation destinations, this property gives you direct access to endless trails, lakes, fishing, and year-round outdoor fun. Enjoy the benefits of the Wilderness Park association, which includ

Key facts

• Community pool
• Two cabins
• Access to clubhouse

Tags

• TWO CABINS
• DIRECT ACCESS TO TRAILS
• ACCESS TO CLUBHOUSE
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Annual taxes listed (for reference): $414
• HOA & community: Wilderness Park HOA; Annual association fee of $425; HOA amenities include beach access, dock, recreation facility, shared amenities, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; Shared garage/stall
• Utilities: No public water; No public sewer; Fuel: Electric and Wood
• Home design: Residential property; One level (with upper loft areas); Entry level on main floor
• Construction: Foundation: pillar/post/pier; Foundation area and living area approx. 576; Foundation dimensions include 12 x 28 and 12 x 20
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Other exterior features; Lot approximately 3.4 acres (240 x 617)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (main level bedroom and additional loft/upper-level sleeping areas); Main-level bedroom (approx. 12 x 28); Second bedroom on main level (approx. 20 x 12); Upper-level lofts (12 x 12, 10 x 12, 4 x 12)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Other heating; No central air
• Interior features: Open loft areas; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Staples-Motley School District (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #238 of 301 in MN (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $67,415 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.29%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $12,831
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $42,308
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56479

• Home prices YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $426	-5% $402	+0% $378	+5% $354	+10% $330
Rent	-10% $288	-5% $333	+0% $378	+5% $422	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $413	-0.5pp $395	base $378	+0.5pp $360	+1.0pp $341

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $69,500 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $65,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,088
• − Management: −$1,088
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $3,670
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$881
• After-tax cash flow: $3,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to its exterior, interior, and flooring to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major Flooring — Exposed subflooring
• Major Interior walls — Unfinished drywall

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace flooring — Improves living space and value
• Both Finish interior walls — Completes the living space and enhances value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Exposed subflooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Unfinished drywall	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Improves living space and value ↑
• Both Finish interior walls — Completes the living space and enhances value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Staples-Motley School District
• NCES district ID: 2733900
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $41,979
• Composite: 32.07/100
• National rank: #5816
• State rank: #238 of 301 in MN

Livability — Meadow Brook

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,018

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,371 people
• By 2030: 26,311 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 23,945 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 21,889 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 18,435 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 14,478 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 16% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.4) · D 32.6% · R 66.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.4 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+31.7 2012: R+13.1 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.71%
• Current HPI: 194.5854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $80,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid