Is 606 S Aquilla St in Itasca, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 4.9% cap rate and $-221/mo modeled cash flow at a $189,950 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 606 S Aquilla St?

The modeled cap rate is 4.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,517/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D+ Composite 48.83

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +13.8/15.0
Appreciation +10.0/10.0
Cash flow +7.7/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
1% rule +3.0/10.0
Schools +2.9/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +1.8/10.0

$189,950

606 S Aquilla St · Itasca, TX 76055

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 175 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 0.36 ac lot $156/sqft · 14% below area Est $221k · 14% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-family home offering comfort, efficiency, and modern updates throughout! Freshly painted walls create a bright, clean feel, making it easy to envision your personal touch in every room. The updated kitchen features brand-new appliances, including a refrigerator, dishwasher, and electric range which is perfect for everyday living and entertaining alike. Enjoy the benefits of properly inspected solar panels, providing energy efficiency and potential cost savings. With a functional layout, spacious bedrooms, and well-appointed bathrooms, this home is designed for both relaxation and convenience. Located in the charming town of Itasca, TX, this home offers the perfect blend of small-town living and convenient access to larger metro areas. Itasca features a strong sense of community, historic character, and a peaceful rural atmosphere while still being within commuting distance to the DFW Metroplex and Waco.

Key facts

Historic character
Updated kitchen
Brand-new appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (20.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (20.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $151k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Itasca El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 295 students, 74% FRL); Itasca Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 164 students, 62% FRL); Itasca H S (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,106 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 192 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,974 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.80% ✗
Cap rate: 4.90%
Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
DSCR: 0.78
GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $221,127
List price: $189,950
Delta: -14.10%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 S Aquilla St	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,215 (0%)	3mo	$245,000	$202	96
301 S Lamar St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+0%)	7mo	$244,900	$201	78
102 Allie Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-1%)	16mo	$235,000	$196	77
602 S Aquilla St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,086 (-11%)	6mo	$230,000	$212	75
303 S Lamar	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+0%)	20mo	$269,999	$221	67
126 Don Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-10%)	8mo	$195,000	$177	65
122 Don Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-10%)	8mo	$195,000	$177	65
112 Grayson Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	9mo	$239,900	$208	64
104 S College St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+1%)	10mo	$99,999	$81	60
114 Don Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+14%)	17mo	$239,900	$174	60
100 Allie Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-9%)	23mo	$215,000	$194	59
103 Grayson Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,336 (+10%)	16mo	$245,000	$183	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 20.8%
Equity multiple: 2.68×
Total profit: $89,488
Equity at exit: $171,122

10-year hold

IRR: 18.9%
Equity multiple: 6.17×
Total profit: $274,754
Equity at exit: $369,031

Cash invested: $53,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 18 active · 7 under contract
Months of supply: 27.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $196,495 ($151/sqft)
Median days on market: 94 d
This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +20.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76055

Home prices YoY: 4.1%
Active inventory: 100
Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,517 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$996
Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,130/yr
Insurance: −$79
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
Net cashflow: $-221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,797

Max offer price $150,974

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-113	-5% $-167	+0% $-221	+5% $-274	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-341	-5% $-281	+0% $-221	+5% $-161	+10% $-101
Rate	-1.0pp $-125	-0.5pp $-172	base $-221	+0.5pp $-270	+1.0pp $-320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $47,488
Closing costs: $5,698
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 E Marrion St Unit 4 Itasca, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$875	$1.22	93d	1	0.21mi
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	26d	1	0.33mi
108 E Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	93d	1	0.40mi
111 Minnie Dr Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,775	$1.42	93d	1	0.40mi
106 W Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	93d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-05

days on market $189,950 Active 175 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $189,950 Active 174 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $189,950 Active 173 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $189,950 Active 170 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $189,950 Active 168 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $189,950 Active 166 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $189,950 Active 164 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $189,950 Active 163 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $189,950 Active 162 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $189,950 Active 161 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $189,950 Active 160 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $189,950 Active 159 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $189,950 Active 157 DOM
2026-07-17

days on market $189,950 Active 156 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $189,950 Active 155 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $189,950 Active 154 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $189,950 Active 153 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $189,950 Active 152 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $189,950 Active 151 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $189,950 Active 150 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $189,950 Active 149 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $189,950 Active 148 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $189,950 Active 146 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $189,950 Active 145 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $189,950 Active 144 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $189,950 Active 143 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $189,950 Active 142 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $189,950 Active 141 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $189,950 Active 140 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $189,950 Active 139 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $189,950 Active 138 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $189,950 Active 137 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $189,950 Active 136 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $189,950 Active 135 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $189,950 Active 132 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $189,950 Active 131 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $189,950 Active 130 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $189,950 Active 129 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $189,950 Active 127 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $189,950 Active 126 DOM
2026-06-17

price $189,950 Active 125 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $199,950 Active 125 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $199,950 Active 124 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $199,950 Active 122 DOM
2026-06-12

days on market $199,950 Active 121 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $199,950 Active 118 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $199,950 Active 117 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $199,950 Active 116 DOM
2026-06-05

days on market $199,950 Active 114 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $199,950 Active 112 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $4,130 · $344/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $4,130 · $344/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $18,210
− Mortgage interest: −$10,640
− Property taxes: −$4,130
− Insurance: −$950
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
− Management: −$1,457
− Depreciation: −$5,526
Taxable loss: −$5,950

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,428
After-tax cash flow: $-1,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,075–$18,225 screening

This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features modern updates and a fresh paint job, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both painting — fresh paint can make a big difference in curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 29/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Itasca El F TX #3,052/4,322 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Itasca Middle F TX #971/1,662 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Itasca H S F TX #1,106/1,632 Nat'l #11,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Itasca ISD
NCES district ID: 4824480
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $49,224
Composite: 25.26/100
National rank: #7499
State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Itasca

Score: 63/100
State rank: #832
US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Itasca, TX
County: Hill · 34,013 people
City population: 3,719
Population (ZIP): 3,719
Household income: $77,627
Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 34,013 people
By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
Current HPI: 264.5221
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+31.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

2026-04-18 Price Changed $209,950 NTREIS
2026-02-10 Listed $219,950 NTREIS
2023-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
2023-03-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
2023-03-02 Pending — NTREIS
2023-02-27 Contingent — NTREIS
2023-02-16 Listed $219,000 NTREIS
2020-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
2020-09-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
2020-07-25 Contingent — NTREIS
2020-07-11 Listed $159,900 NTREIS
2020-07-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
2020-06-08 Listed $159,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+152.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,130 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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