44 Lakeview · Big Bear Lake, CA 92333

$199,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · Other public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1920 $217/sqft · 24% below area Est $261k · 24% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 1920s Big Bear cabin in the desirable Lakeview Tract, set in a quiet forest environment with widely spaced cabins, gated private road, and year-round access. Just a 5-minute walk to Big Bear Lake, the Alpine Pedal Path, and close to the East Boat Ramp for boating, kayaking, paddle boarding, and 4th of July fireworks viewing. Woodland Trail access and Interlaken shopping and dining are also nearby. The cabin blends its original exterior character with modernized, comfortable interior. Recent improvements include newer comp-shingle roofing and underlayment, newer decking, and newer siding and paint on the south-facing exterior. Inside features include a massive authentic native rock fireplace, granite countertops, cherrywood kitchen cabinets, and an open living/dining area with expansive south-facing windows framing views of Snow Summit and Bear Mountain. The main level offers single-story living with the primary bedroom and bath on the lower level. The upper loft provides space for two beds plus a home-office alcove. Outdoor spaces include a sunny south-facing deck with ski-slope views and a cool, shaded rear patio with stone walls and private forest outlooks. Additional amenities include Spectrum high-speed internet availability, ample parking, and a lockable walk-out basement with workbench and storage for kayaks and gear. City water is a rare bonus and is approx. $350/year. A rare opportunity to own a well-maintained, updated historic cabin in one of Big Bear’s most peaceful and walkable forest settings. Comes furnished and ready to enjoy. May not be used as a Short-Term Rental but neither can the surrounding cabins, keeping the peace and quiet that most Recreation Residence owners enjoy the most. At time of publication it is the best buy of the Recreation Residence cabins at under $200,000. Don't wait. See it this weekend.

Key facts

• Alpine pedal path
• Newer decking
• Gated private road

Tags

• GATED PRIVATE ROAD
• YEAR-ROUND ACCESS
• 5-MINUTE WALK TO BIG BEAR LAKE
• ALPINE PEDAL PATH
• NEWER COMP-SHINGLE ROOFING
• NEWER DECKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,634
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -23.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-16,231
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,522
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92333

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,021 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,282/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,703

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1132 W Aeroplane Blvd Big Bear City, CA	2.0	1.0	660	$1,800	$2.73	18d	1	1.02mi
1029 W Aeroplane Blvd Big Bear City, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,795	$2.08	43d	1	1.13mi
921 W Aeroplane Blvd Big Bear City, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$2,950	$3.07	24d	1	1.22mi
780 W Aeroplane Blvd Unit F Big Bear, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,500	$2.00	43d	1	1.38mi
312 Pineview Dr Big Bear City, CA	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,900	$1.78	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternetsecurity

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $199,000 Active 1873-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1873 chars)

    Charming 1920s Big Bear cabin in the desirable Lakeview Tract, set in a quiet forest environment with widely spaced cabins, gated private road, and year-round access. Just a 5-minute walk to Big Bear Lake, the Alpine Pedal Path, and close to the East Boat Ramp for boating, kayaking, paddle boarding, and 4th of July fireworks viewing. Woodland Trail access and Interlaken shopping and dining are also nearby. The cabin blends its original exterior character with modernized, comfortable interior. Recent improvements include newer comp-shingle roofing and underlayment, newer decking, and newer siding and paint on the south-facing exterior. Inside features include a massive authentic native rock fireplace, granite countertops, cherrywood kitchen cabinets, and an open living/dining area with expansive south-facing windows framing views of Snow Summit and Bear Mountain. The main level offers single-story living with the primary bedroom and bath on the lower level. The upper loft provides space for two beds plus a home-office alcove. Outdoor spaces include a sunny south-facing deck with ski-slope views and a cool, shaded rear patio with stone walls and private forest outlooks. Additional amenities include Spectrum high-speed internet availability, ample parking, and a lockable walk-out basement with workbench and storage for kayaks and gear. City water is a rare bonus and is approx. $350/year. A rare opportunity to own a well-maintained, updated historic cabin in one of Big Bear’s most peaceful and walkable forest settings. Comes furnished and ready to enjoy. May not be used as a Short-Term Rental but neither can the surrounding cabins, keeping the peace and quiet that most Recreation Residence owners enjoy the most. At time of publication it is the best buy of the Recreation Residence cabins at under $200,000. Don't wait. See it this weekend.

16. 2025-07-15
    price $260,000
17. 2025-06-06
    price $265,000
18. 2016-05-09
    soldstatus $160,000 Closed Sale
19. 2016-05-02
    status Pending Sale
20. 2016-04-30
    historical
21. 2016-04-07
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2016-03-23
    listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥82°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,282
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$44
• After-tax cash flow: $3,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,215
• Population (ZIP): 403

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Italian 6% Scottish 6%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.30%
• Current HPI: 318.6629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+17.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $199,000 MRCAOR
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $260,000 MRCAOR
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $265,000 MRCAOR
• 2016-05-09 Sold (MLS) $160,000 CRMLS
• 2016-05-02 Pending — CRMLS
• 2016-04-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-04-07 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2016-03-23 Listed $169,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,282 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.