5380 Mills Rd · Campbell, NY 14821

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1969 2.08 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-cared-for one-owner ranch home situated on just over 2 acres in the Campbell-Savona School District! Offering 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths, this property provides the perfect balance of space and convenience and only a short drive to I-86. Inside, you’ll find original hardwood floors throughout, a cozy gas fireplace in the living room, and plenty of storage space. The full partially finished basement offers additional living and entertaining space complete with a bar, sink, and half bath. Major updates include a new furnace and central air in 2020, hot water tank in 2019, and a roof approximately 8–10 years old. Outside features include a detached 1-car garag

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Doggy door
• 2.08 acre lot

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• DETACHED 1-CAR GARAGE
• TWO SHEDS FOR EXTRA STORAGE
• PARTIALLY FENCED AREA
• DOGGY DOOR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Gravel driveway; Covered patio/porch; Patio; Porch; Shed(s)/storage; Poultry coop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal dining room; Pantry; Bar; Accessible bedroom; Has basement (full, partially finished); Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (28.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (33.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#917 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, schools B; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Campbell-Savona Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #334 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $127,098 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.92%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $36,101
• Equity at exit: $120,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $121,299
• Equity at exit: $218,684

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14821

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,826/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,659

Max offer price $135,771

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $189,900 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $189,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-05-28
   listed $189,900 Active
7. 2018-12-06
   historical
8. 2018-11-15
   listed $159,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,826 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,018 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$192/yr (+$16/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,826
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$7,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,710
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell-Savona Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600020
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $49,653
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2667
• State rank: #334 of 590 in NY

Livability — Campbell

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #917
• US rank: #17948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,015

Population outlook (Steuben County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,062 people
• By 2030: 89,793 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 82,353 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 74,286 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 55,589 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 37,587 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Steuben

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 34.1% · R 65.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.07%
• Current HPI: 224.5452
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+19.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $189,900 UNYREIS
• 2018-12-06 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2018-11-15 Listed $159,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,826 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.