1242 Pages Lake Rd · St. Pauls, NC 28384

$49,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2007 0.57 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 1242 Lake Pages Road in St. Pauls, NC! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers great potential for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to add their personal touch. Situated on a spacious lot, this property features a functional floor plan with ample living space and endless possibilities to transform it into a beautiful residence or income-producing investment. With a little TLC, this home could truly shine. Conveniently located near local schools, shopping, dining, and major highways, this is an excellent opportunity to build equity and create value. Don't miss your chance to unlock the potential of this promising property!

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Local schools
• Shopping

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• LOCAL SCHOOLS
• SHOPPING
• DINING
• MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Single-story, entry level on grade; Vinyl siding and frame construction
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Paved road access; Has a view; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating with heat pump
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $704 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bladen County Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #161 of 178 in NC (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Plain View Primary (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 183 students, 98% FRL); Tar Heel Middle (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #424 of 475 statewide, top 90%, 287 students, 99% FRL); West Bladen High (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #374 of 535 statewide, top 71%, 701 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 159 units permitted in Bladen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bladen County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.58%
• DSCR: 3.74
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $36,923
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.56×
• Total profit: $89,975
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28384

• Home prices YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $730/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $704

Break-even live

Break-even rent $428

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $732	-5% $718	+0% $704	+5% $690	+10% $676
Rent	-10% $600	-5% $652	+0% $704	+5% $756	+10% $808
Rate	-1.0pp $729	-0.5pp $717	base $704	+0.5pp $691	+1.0pp $678

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 654-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $49,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $730 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $730 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$730
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,267
• − Management: −$1,267
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $8,154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,957
• After-tax cash flow: $6,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bladen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $30,769
• Composite: 20.59/100
• National rank: #8554
• State rank: #161 of 178 in NC

Livability — St. Pauls

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,166

Population outlook (Bladen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,854 people
• By 2030: 30,171 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 26,444 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 22,983 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 16,165 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 11,329 · -64.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 33% Black 21% Native American 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 29% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bladen

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.5% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+13.7 2016: R+9.5 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.11%
• Current HPI: 219.6597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $49,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $730 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.