16 Hickory Hill Rd · Windham, NY 12496

$599,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 2001 1.13 ac lot $266/sqft · 34% below area Est $903k · 34% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect mountain lifestyle in this beautifully renovated, fully furnished, 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with direct slope views and seamless access to world-class recreation. Completely renovated in 2022 with a new roof, skylights, and custom kitchen featuring a professional 6-burner Vulcan stove, this property blends modern comfort with outdoor living. Inside, you'll find stainless steel appliances, a bright sunroom, spacious living room, family game room, and a charming Dutchwest wood-burning stove. Smart Nest thermostats provide modern climate control, while outside, a large entertainment deck and cozy fire pit overlook the slopes, tubing park, and Batavia Kill Creek. Located in vibrant Windham Village, you're minutes from golf courses, renowned restaurants, scenic walking trails, and year-round mountain activities including skiing, tubing, mountain biking, and fishing. The property is offered fully furnished and turnkey--perfect for a primary residence, mountain escape, or vacation rental investment. Seller will cover 10,000 of buyer's closing fees.

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• 1.13 acre lot
• Built 2001

Tags

• DIRECT VIEWS OF WINDHAM SLOPES
• PROXIMITY TO GOLF COURSES
• PROXIMITY TO WINDHAM VILLAGE
• PROXIMITY TO RESTAURANTS
• PROXIMITY TO WALKING PATHS
• CUSTOM KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (56.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (61.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (61.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 3.2% in Windham — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#964 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, cost of living D+.
• Windham-Ashland-Jewett Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #517 of 755 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $470k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $233,894 (61.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.39% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.80%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 21.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $902,787
• List price: $599,000
• Delta: -33.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Thunderbird Ter	0.48mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,020 (-10%)	17mo	$655,000	$324	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $16,982
• Equity at exit: $341,487

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $156,381
• Equity at exit: $591,054

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12496

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 21.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$385 /mo · $4,622/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-1,928

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,780

Max offer price $258,372

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,589	-5% $-1,759	+0% $-1,928	+5% $-2,098	+10% $-2,267
Rent	-10% $-2,113	-5% $-2,021	+0% $-1,928	+5% $-1,836	+10% $-1,743
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,627	-0.5pp $-1,776	base $-1,928	+0.5pp $-2,083	+1.0pp $-2,241

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $599,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $599,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $599,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $599,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $599,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $599,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $599,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $599,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-02-12
    listed $599,000 Active 1076-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1076 chars)

    Discover the perfect mountain lifestyle in this beautifully renovated, fully furnished, 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with direct slope views and seamless access to world-class recreation. Completely renovated in 2022 with a new roof, skylights, and custom kitchen featuring a professional 6-burner Vulcan stove, this property blends modern comfort with outdoor living. Inside, you'll find stainless steel appliances, a bright sunroom, spacious living room, family game room, and a charming Dutchwest wood-burning stove. Smart Nest thermostats provide modern climate control, while outside, a large entertainment deck and cozy fire pit overlook the slopes, tubing park, and Batavia Kill Creek. Located in vibrant Windham Village, you're minutes from golf courses, renowned restaurants, scenic walking trails, and year-round mountain activities including skiing, tubing, mountain biking, and fishing. The property is offered fully furnished and turnkey--perfect for a primary residence, mountain escape, or vacation rental investment. Seller will cover 10,000 of buyer's closing fees.

17. 2024-10-03
    listed $649,000 Active
18. 2024-03-18
    listed $699,000
19. 2022-04-20
    soldstatus $470,000
20. 2021-12-02
    listed $499,000
21. 2021-06-03
    listed $525,000
22. 2021-02-22
    soldstatus $280,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,622 · $385/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,373 · $614/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,750/yr (+$229/mo · 59.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$4,622
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,245
• − Management: −$2,245
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$35,019
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,405
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Windham-Ashland-Jewett Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631590
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,942
• Composite: 42.57/100
• National rank: #6842
• State rank: #517 of 755 in NY

Livability — Windham

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #964
• US rank: #18888

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Windham, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,241

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 5% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.06%
• Current HPI: 425.2138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+113.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $599,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-10-03 Listed $649,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-03-18 Listed $699,000 HVCRMLS
• 2022-04-20 Sold (MLS) $470,000 HVCRMLS
• 2021-12-02 Listed $499,000 HVCRMLS
• 2021-06-03 Listed $525,000 HVCRMLS
• 2021-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,622 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.