5663 Fair Haven Trl · Woodbury, MN 55129

$537,700

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,530 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2019 9,408 sqft lot $213/sqft · 21% below area Est $677k · 21% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold Home One of our most popular plans! Columbus Floor plan

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Solar panels
• Finished lower level

Tags

• INTEGRATED WI-FI NETWORK
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• DOUBLE-OVEN CONVENIENCE
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• CUSTOM-DESIGNED COMPOSITE DECK
• SOLAR PANELS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Conventional mortgage type available
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Associa; Monthly association fee of $23 (fee includes none)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Garage door approximately 7 feet high by 16 feet wide
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers (Xcel Energy)
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Main entry level present; Above-grade finished living area and below-grade finished area
• Construction: Frame construction; Poured concrete foundation; Asphalt roof (age 8 years or newer)
• Exterior features: Deck and patio; Vinyl siding; Full split-rail fencing; Corner lot; City street and cul-de-sac frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Wall oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom with private 3/4 bath (upper level implied); Upper-level bedrooms (three additional bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom (primary); One half bathroom on main floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Air-to-air exchanger; Exhaust fan; Family room with gas fireplace; 3/4 primary bath; Private primary bath; Main floor half bath; Rough-in plumbing; Upper level full bath; 2nd floor laundry; 4 bedrooms on one level
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry room on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $538k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-900 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $379k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (37.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.5% in Woodbury — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#6 in MN, #153 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($522k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $417k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $337,526 (37.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.17%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $677,488
• List price: $537,700
• Delta: -20.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-144,767
• Equity at exit: $80,173

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-201,250
• Equity at exit: $46,490

Cash invested: $150,556 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55129

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,375 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,820
• Tax from tax record: −$499 /mo · $5,990/yr
• Insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $-900

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,514

Max offer price $378,798

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,425
• Closing costs: $16,131
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10108 Sunbird Cir Saint Paul, MN	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1815	$3,700	$2.04	1d	7	0.64mi
10692 Wiles Way Saint Paul, MN	3.0	3.0	1777	$2,600	$1.46	43d	1	1.01mi
4644 Oak Point Ln Saint Paul, MN	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2239	$4,160	$1.86	1d	7	1.06mi
10540 67th St S Cottage Grove, MN	4.0	3.0	2954	$3,400	$1.15	43d	1	1.12mi
5275 Long Pointe Pass Saint Paul, MN	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,500	$1.40	43d	1	1.15mi
7191 Joplin Ave S Cottage Grove, MN	4.0	2.0	2096	$2,795	$1.33	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $537,700 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $537,700 Contingent - Inspection 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $537,700 Contingent - Inspection 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $537,700 Contingent - Inspection 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $537,700 Contingent - Inspection 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $537,700 Contingent - Inspection 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $537,700 Contingent - Inspection 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   status $537,700 Contingent - Inspection 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $537,700 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $537,700 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $537,700 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $537,700 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $537,700 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $537,700 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $537,700 Active 1735-char remark
16. 2026-04-27
    historical
17. 2026-03-16
    price $539,700
18. 2026-02-18
    listed $550,000 Active
19. 2026-02-16
    historical
20. 2019-11-08
    soldstatus $417,350 Sold

    Show marketing remark (62 chars)

    Sold Home One of our most popular plans! Columbus Floor plan

21. 2019-09-20
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (62 chars)

    Sold Home One of our most popular plans! Columbus Floor plan

22. 2019-09-20
    listed $414,990 Active

    Show marketing remark (62 chars)

    Sold Home One of our most popular plans! Columbus Floor plan

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,990 · $499/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,006 · $501/mo
• Expected delta: +$16/yr (+$1/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,120
• − Property taxes: −$5,990
• − Insurance: −$2,688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,240
• − Management: −$3,240
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$15,642
• Taxable loss: −$20,694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,966
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Washington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2733810
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $88,285
• Composite: 51.8/100
• National rank: #1670
• State rank: #40 of 301 in MN

Livability — Woodbury

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #153

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodbury, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 78,305
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 34,120
• Household income: $143,795
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 639.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Asian 17% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.89%
• Current HPI: 216.0248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.91%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+29.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-08 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $537,700 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $539,700 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $550,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-08 Sold (MLS) $417,350 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-20 Listed $414,990 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+56.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,990 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.