17672 Kettering Trl · Lakeville, MN 55044

$600,000

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1992 0.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 5 bed, 5 bath, 3 car garage home. Property is a little less than a 1/2 acre. Features 4 bedrooms on the upper level and a 5th in the lower level. Home has been freshly painted and has new carpet. Other features include stainless steel appliances, upper level laundry and a 28x18 rec room. Brackett's Crossing Golf Course nearby. Welcome Home!!

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1992

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 3-car garage (34 x 20)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Sun room
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Wood exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen center island; Garbage disposal; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on main level; Additional bedrooms on upper and lower levels
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 three-quarter bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Primary suite with double sinks, separate tub and shower, jetted tub, private full bath; Basement bathroom 3/4
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central vacuum; Eat-in kitchen; Hardwood floors; Kitchen center island; Sun room; Walk-in closet; Main floor primary bedroom; 3 bedrooms on one level; 2nd floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level; Washer; Dryer; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $554k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $476k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $476k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Lakeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#25 in MN, #711 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lakeville Public School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #21 of 301 in MN (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Lake Elementary (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #216 of 857 statewide, top 29%, 405 students, 38% FRL); Kenwood Trail Middle School (math 49% / reading 59%, grade B-, #48 of 258 statewide, top 19%, 777 students, 34% FRL); Lakeville South High (math 51% / reading 67%, grade C+, #53 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 1,906 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 10% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 719 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $188k; list at $600k implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $476,372 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-111,832
• Equity at exit: $89,462

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-110,997
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55044

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 719
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$625 /mo · $7,498/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,000
• Net cashflow: $-258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,090

Max offer price $554,430

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $-88	+0% $-258	+5% $-428	+10% $-598
Rent	-10% $-634	-5% $-446	+0% $-258	+5% $-70	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-105	base $-258	+0.5pp $-413	+1.0pp $-572

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17739 Layton Path Lakeville, MN	6.0	5.0	4301	$6,500	$1.51	45d	1	0.53mi
16160 Kendale Dr Lakeville, MN	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	2205	$4,500	$2.04	5d	66	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $600,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   price $600,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $650,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $650,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $650,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $650,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $650,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $650,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 359-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    status $650,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $650,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $650,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $650,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,498 · $625/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,498 · $625/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$7,498
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,573
• − Management: −$4,573
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$13,544
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,250
• After-tax cash flow: $155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeville Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2717780
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $96,899
• Composite: 56.36/100
• National rank: #1164
• State rank: #21 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lakeville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #711

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeville, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 64,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 64,762
• Household income: $141,551
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 956.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.50%
• Current HPI: 216.0601
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+273.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Coming Soon $650,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-12 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-05 Listed $589,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-22 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $188,000 Public Records
• 1997-07-16 Sold (MLS) $188,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-07-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-01-21 Listed $194,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-01-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-09-25 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-09-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-06-14 Listed $209,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-07-24 Listed $174,020 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-07-24 Sold (MLS) $174,020 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,498 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.