9583 S 3rd St Rd · Waco, TX 76706

$119,249

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,108 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 166 Days on market

Built 1950 Fair condition 7,627 sqft lot $108/sqft · 39% below area Est $196k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW LISTING! Welcome to 9583 S. 3rd St. We just listed this This pleasant 2-bedroom, 1 bathroom home features a large yard that is great for pets and children. This home offers you easy access to Cameron Park Zoo, National Parks, Museums, and much more. Appreciate the nature and clear skies in this beautiful rural neighborhood. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home. When you call be sure and ask about the other properties that we may have in the Waco Area.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Rural neighborhood
• 7,627 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• EASY ACCESS TO NATIONAL PARKS
• EASY ACCESS TO MUSEUMS
• RURAL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Robinson ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #179 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robinson Pri (387 students, 48% FRL); Robinson Int (math 54% / reading 44%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 539 students, 42% FRL); Robinson H S (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 696 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 405 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $825 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,939 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.55%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,359
• List price: $119,249
• Delta: -39.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1677 Hobbs Ln	0.50mi	2/1.5	1,350 (+22%)	8mo	$199,900	$148	43
704 E Moonlight Dr	2.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,309 (+18%)	10mo	$209,900	$160	22
629 E Moonlight Dr	2.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,409 (+27%)	51mo	$196,000	$139	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-425
• Equity at exit: $17,780

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $19,679
• Equity at exit: $10,310

Cash invested: $33,390 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76706

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 405
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,373 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$625
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,060/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $966

Max offer price $119,249

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $389	-5% $355	+0% $321	+5% $288	+10% $254
Rent	-10% $213	-5% $267	+0% $321	+5% $376	+10% $430
Rate	-1.0pp $381	-0.5pp $352	base $321	+0.5pp $291	+1.0pp $259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,812
• Closing costs: $3,577
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $119,249 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $119,249 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $119,249 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $119,249 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $119,249 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $119,249 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $119,249 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $119,249 Active 156 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $119,249 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $119,249 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $119,249 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $119,249 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $119,249 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $119,249 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $119,249 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $119,249 Active 143 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $119,249 Active 142 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $119,249 Active 141 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $119,249 Active 140 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $119,249 Active 139 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $119,249 Active 138 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $119,249 Active 137 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $119,249 Active 136 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $119,249 Active 135 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $119,249 Active 134 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $119,249 Active 133 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $119,249 Active 132 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $119,249 Active 131 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $119,249 Active 130 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $119,249 Active 129 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $119,249 Active 128 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $119,249 Active 127 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $119,249 Active 126 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $119,249 Active 125 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $119,249 Active 124 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $119,249 Active 123 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $119,249 Active 121 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $119,249 Active 119 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $119,249 Active 118 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $119,249 Active 115 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $119,249 Active 114 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $119,249 Active 113 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $119,249 Active 112 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $119,249 Active 110 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $119,249 Active 109 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $119,249 Active 107 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $119,249 Active 106 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,249 Active 105 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,249 Active 104 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,249 Active 99 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,060 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,182 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,122/yr (+$94/mo · 105.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,680
• − Property taxes: −$1,060
• − Insurance: −$596
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,318
• − Management: −$1,318
• − Depreciation: −$3,469
• Taxable income: $2,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$489
• After-tax cash flow: $3,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $27,700–$49,860 screening

This single-family home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its exterior and curb appeal, which would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof metal

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major roof — Metal roof appears aged and possibly leaking
• Minor landscaping — Sparse and overgrown
• Major fencing — Structurally compromised

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair and paint windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both repair and paint siding — Restores structural integrity and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both repair and paint fencing — Restores structural integrity and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robinson Pri Middle Robinson Int C- TX #378/1,662 Nat'l #3,736/14,009 High Robinson H S F TX #821/1,632 Nat'l #8,293/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Robinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837410
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $69,096
• Composite: 42.95/100
• National rank: #3113
• State rank: #179 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: McLennan County · 264,191 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,627
• Household income: $41,656
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.31%
• Current HPI: 230.2557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $119,249 HARMLS
• 2007-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,060 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.