9583 S 3rd St Rd · Robinson, TX 76706

$119,249

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,108 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1950 7,627 sqft lot $108/sqft · 39% below area Est $196k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW LISTING! Welcome to 9583 S. 3rd St. We just listed this This pleasant 2-bedroom, 1 bathroom home features a large yard that is great for pets and children. This home offers you easy access to Cameron Park Zoo, National Parks, Museums, and much more. Appreciate the nature and clear skies in this beautiful rural neighborhood. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home. When you call be sure and ask about the other properties that we may have in the Waco Area.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Rural neighborhood
• 7,627 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• EASY ACCESS TO NATIONAL PARKS
• EASY ACCESS TO MUSEUMS
• RURAL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.2% in Robinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#349 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Robinson ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #179 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $825 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,516 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.08%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,261
• List price: $119,249
• Delta: -39.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,249
• Equity at exit: $17,780

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $17,950
• Equity at exit: $10,310

Cash invested: $33,390 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76706

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,356 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$625
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,060/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $966

Max offer price $119,249

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,812
• Closing costs: $3,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,249 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,249 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,249 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,249 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,249 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,249 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,249 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,249 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,249 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,249 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,249 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,249 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,249 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,249 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-02-23
    listed $119,249 Active 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    NEW LISTING! Welcome to 9583 S. 3rd St. We just listed this This pleasant 2-bedroom, 1 bathroom home features a large yard that is great for pets and children. This home offers you easy access to Cameron Park Zoo, National Parks, Museums, and much more. Appreciate the nature and clear skies in this beautiful rural neighborhood. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home. When you call be sure and ask about the other properties that we may have in the Waco Area.

16. 2007-07-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,060 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,182 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,122/yr (+$94/mo · 105.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,680
• − Property taxes: −$1,060
• − Insurance: −$596
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,302
• − Management: −$1,302
• − Depreciation: −$3,469
• Taxable income: $1,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$448
• After-tax cash flow: $3,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Robinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837410
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $69,096
• Composite: 42.95/100
• National rank: #3113
• State rank: #179 of 826 in TX

Livability — Robinson

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #7658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 40,668
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,627
• Household income: $41,656
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3883.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.31%
• Current HPI: 230.2557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $119,249 HARMLS
• 2007-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,060 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.