1019 N Kern Ave · Okmulgee, OK 74447

$17,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1930 10,001 sqft lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling All Investors! Whether you are just starting out as a landlord, or if you are adding to your rentals, this is a must! Cozy bungalow home, saving tenants $$ in high utilities - roof replaced approx 3 yrs ago. Affordable taxes & insurance. Priced to sell!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 62 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: One-story home; Faces west
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood frame construction; Tar/gravel roof; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (hall/full) on the first floor
• Interior features: Additional unspecified interior features
• Laundry & utility: Interior utility room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $665 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($985 rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 50.9% vs local median 7.6% in Okmulgee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#300 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Okmulgee (town): math 3% / reading 7% proficiency, ranked #264 of 270 in OK (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12 units permitted in Okmulgee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $124 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $537 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okmulgee County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,826 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 50.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 159.30%
• DSCR: 8.09
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.88×
• Total profit: $39,482
• Equity at exit: $2,669

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.75×
• Total profit: $88,978
• Equity at exit: $1,548

Cash invested: $5,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74447

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $985 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $138/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $665

Break-even live

Break-even rent $143

Max offer price $17,900

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,475
• Closing costs: $537
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
324 E 6th St Unit 109 Okmulgee, OK	2.0	1.0	676	$985	$1.46	23d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $17,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $17,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $17,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $17,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $17,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $17,900 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $17,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $17,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-05-18
   price $17,900
10. 2026-04-22
    price $18,900
11. 2026-04-08
    listed $22,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $138 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $161 · $13/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,003
• − Property taxes: −$138
• − Insurance: −$90
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$946
• − Management: −$946
• − Depreciation: −$521
• Taxable income: $8,178
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,963
• After-tax cash flow: $6,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okmulgee
• NCES district ID: 4022800
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 7% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,078
• Composite: 3.66/100
• National rank: #10069
• State rank: #264 of 270 in OK

Livability — Okmulgee

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #300
• US rank: #17773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Okmulgee, OK
• Population (ZIP): 15,500

Population outlook (Okmulgee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,543 people
• By 2030: 36,528 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 34,430 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 32,498 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 28,814 · -23.3%
• By 2100: 25,193 · -32.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Native American 15% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okmulgee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.7) · D 27.7% · R 70.4% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.0pp · 2024: -42.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+32.7 2012: R+17.5 2008: R+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.69%
• Current HPI: 257.2856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-20.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $17,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $18,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-08 Listed $22,500 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $138 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.