525/207 Riverleigh Ave #207 · Riverside, NY 11901

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1974 $167/sqft · 27% above area Est $157k · 27% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Riverwoods an active 55 and older community. This home has been meticulously maintained. Approximately 1344 sq. feet. Large totally renovated eat in kitchen with all stainless steel appliances. Formal dining room. Two bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The main bath has a walk-in-shower. The primary bath has a tub. All updated Anderson windows. New doors. There are several closets. Laundry room with updated washer and dryer. There is a sunroom. Deck off the side door. Carport and patio. The land rent is $1172. per month. That includes trash and snow removal. Cesspool maintenance. Use of the clubhouse. Southampton ocean access with permit. All buyers need to be approved by Riverwoods.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Carport
• Sunroom

Tags

• RENOVATED EAT IN KITCHEN
• UPDATED ANDERSON WINDOWS
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• SUNROOM
• DECK OFF THE SIDE DOOR
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,145 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.62%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,997
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: 27.39%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
525/159 Riverleigh Ave #159	0.07mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	2mo	$135,000	$117	82
525 Riverleigh Ave #45	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+4%)	2mo	$250,000	$200	76
525/108A Riverleigh Ave Unit 108A	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	16mo	$151,000	$131	73
525 Riverleigh Ave #67	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	8mo	$175,000	$152	71
525/88 Riverleigh Ave #88	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+4%)	19mo	$99,000	$79	65
525-74 Riverleigh Ave #74	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (0%)	20mo	$120,000	$100	59
525 Riverleigh Ave #167	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-12%)	13mo	$135,000	$128	58
525/179 Riverleigh	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-12%)	22mo	$47,700	$45	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $79,480
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $213,449
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$834
• Net cashflow: $1,756

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,894	-5% $1,825	+0% $1,756	+5% $1,687	+10% $1,618
Rent	-10% $1,442	-5% $1,599	+0% $1,756	+5% $1,913	+10% $2,070
Rate	-1.0pp $1,857	-0.5pp $1,807	base $1,756	+0.5pp $1,704	+1.0pp $1,651

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
331 E Main St Unit 405 Riverhead, NY	2.0	1.0	777	$4,300	$5.53	44d	1	0.76mi
331 E Main St Unit 204 Riverhead, NY	2.0	1.0	867	$3,350	$3.86	44d	1	0.76mi
331 E Main St Riverhead, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	822	$4,300	$5.23	0d	3	0.76mi
5 Birch Ct Riverhead, NY	3.0	1.0	940	$4,000	$4.26	20d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 711-char remark

   Show marketing remark (711 chars)

   Welcome to Riverwoods an active 55 and older community. This home has been meticulously maintained. Approximately 1344 sq. feet. Large totally renovated eat in kitchen with all stainless steel appliances. Formal dining room. Two bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The main bath has a walk-in-shower. The primary bath has a tub. All updated Anderson windows. New doors. There are several closets. Laundry room with updated washer and dryer. There is a sunroom. Deck off the side door. Carport and patio. The land rent is $1172. per month. That includes trash and snow removal. Cesspool maintenance. Use of the clubhouse. Southampton ocean access with permit. All buyers need to be approved by Riverwoods.

2. 2026-04-10
   listed $199,999 Active 711-char remark

   Show marketing remark (711 chars)

   Welcome to Riverwoods an active 55 and older community. This home has been meticulously maintained. Approximately 1344 sq. feet. Large totally renovated eat in kitchen with all stainless steel appliances. Formal dining room. Two bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The main bath has a walk-in-shower. The primary bath has a tub. All updated Anderson windows. New doors. There are several closets. Laundry room with updated washer and dryer. There is a sunroom. Deck off the side door. Carport and patio. The land rent is $1172. per month. That includes trash and snow removal. Cesspool maintenance. Use of the clubhouse. Southampton ocean access with permit. All buyers need to be approved by Riverwoods.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,813
• − Management: −$3,813
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $19,017
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,564
• After-tax cash flow: $16,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1145
• US rank: #23895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment D- Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverside, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $199,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $291 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.