47 Lawson Ave W · St. Paul, MN 55117

$200,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 786 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1884 4,965 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mint! Move in and enjoy this well cared for updated lovely home. All freshly painted with newer siding, roof, windows (streaming with natural light), flooring, bath and kitchen. Fenced yard! Very charming, affordable and comfortable! Off street parking.

Key facts

• 4,965 sq ft lot
• Built 1884
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; One and one-half stories; Entry level: Main
• Construction: Stone foundation; Asphalt roof; Built area includes finished above-grade space and an unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Deck; Enclosed patio; Front porch; Storage shed; Light tree coverage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Boiler hot water heat; Window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Living/Dining room; Kitchen window; Paneled doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mississippi Creative Arts Elem (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #771 of 857 statewide, top 91%, 566 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 64% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1884 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $184,096 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1884 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.76%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-23,100
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,944
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55117

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,322/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,678

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $242	-5% $185	+0% $129	+5% $72	+10% $15
Rent	-10% $-17	-5% $56	+0% $129	+5% $201	+10% $274
Rate	-1.0pp $229	-0.5pp $180	base $129	+0.5pp $77	+1.0pp $24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
195 Larpenteur Ave W Roseville, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	713	$1,175	$1.65	4d	34	1.43mi
101 10th St E Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	853	$2,490	$2.92	1d	20	1.46mi
330 9th St E St Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	978	$2,495	$2.55	5d	3	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $200,000 Active 628-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   historical $200,000 628-char remark
3. 2015-06-30
   soldstatus $96,000 Sold 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Mint! Move in and enjoy this well cared for updated lovely home. All freshly painted with newer siding, roof, windows (streaming with natural light), flooring, bath and kitchen. Fenced yard! Very charming, affordable and comfortable! Off street parking.

4. 2015-06-22
   status Pending 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Mint! Move in and enjoy this well cared for updated lovely home. All freshly painted with newer siding, roof, windows (streaming with natural light), flooring, bath and kitchen. Fenced yard! Very charming, affordable and comfortable! Off street parking.

5. 2015-05-15
   historical Contingent - Inspection 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Mint! Move in and enjoy this well cared for updated lovely home. All freshly painted with newer siding, roof, windows (streaming with natural light), flooring, bath and kitchen. Fenced yard! Very charming, affordable and comfortable! Off street parking.

6. 2015-05-08
   listed $99,000 Active 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Mint! Move in and enjoy this well cared for updated lovely home. All freshly painted with newer siding, roof, windows (streaming with natural light), flooring, bath and kitchen. Fenced yard! Very charming, affordable and comfortable! Off street parking.

7. 2006-03-24
   soldstatus $102,500

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   This One MUST GO! Write an Offer! Sale subject to Bank's Approval of Short Sale. New Siding, New Roof, and New Windows! Great Condition.

8. 2006-03-24
   soldstatus $102,500

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   This One MUST GO! Write an Offer! Sale subject to Bank's Approval of Short Sale. New Siding, New Roof, and New Windows! Great Condition.

9. 2006-03-13
   historical

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   This One MUST GO! Write an Offer! Sale subject to Bank's Approval of Short Sale. New Siding, New Roof, and New Windows! Great Condition.

10. 2005-09-30
    historical
11. 2005-09-29
    listed $109,900

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    This One MUST GO! Write an Offer! Sale subject to Bank's Approval of Short Sale. New Siding, New Roof, and New Windows! Great Condition.

12. 2005-04-06
    listed $159,900
13. 2002-03-31
    soldstatus $74,500
14. 2002-01-17
    soldstatus $74,500
15. 2001-10-20
    listed $74,500
16. 2001-10-20
    historical
17. 1993-03-30
    soldstatus $39,000
18. 1993-02-26
    soldstatus $39,000
19. 1993-02-01
    listed $39,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,322 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,322 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,322
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,786
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$429
• After-tax cash flow: $1,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 44,697
• Household income: $70,771
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1588.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Asian 24% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Philippines, India
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 15% Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -308.56%
• Current HPI: 267.4216
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+373.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Sold (MLS) $187,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-28 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $200,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon $200,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-30 Sold (MLS) $96,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-15 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-08 Listed $99,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records
• 2006-03-24 Sold (MLS) $102,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-13 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-29 Listed $109,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-06 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
• 2002-01-17 Sold (MLS) $74,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-10-20 Listed $74,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-10-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1993-02-26 Sold (MLS) $39,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-02-01 Listed $39,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,322 · -14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.