5619 Bayshore Rd #328 · Memphis, FL 34221

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1977 3,210 sqft lot Est $93k · 35% over $199/mo HOA · 10% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! Newly updated! New Carpet and vinyl makes this home shine! Enjoy the peaceful life style that this 2 bedroom, 2 bath home provides. This home features an eat-in kitchen plus a formal dining room, and a sunny Florida Lanai. The community enjoys aclubhouse and a community pool. Sorry, no pets allowed.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Nearby amenities
• Billiards room

Tags

• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• NO NEIGHBORS DIRECTLY BEHIND
• SPARKLING HEATED POOL
• BILLIARDS ROOM
• LIBRARY
• NEARBY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Directions available to property
• Financial info: Total annual fees $2,388; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee $199; Association approval required; Association fee includes common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, insurance, grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Clubhouse; Pool; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats OK; breed, number and size limits; max pet weight 30 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Residential property; One level; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Slab foundation; Built in (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $598 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $125k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.51%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $92,718
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5619 Bayshore Rd #126	0.08mi	2/2.0	840 (-8%)	1mo	$61,000	$73	77
5619 Bayshore Rd #111	0.12mi	2/2.0	800 (-13%)	3mo	$81,000	$101	66
420 49th St E #47	0.44mi	2/2.0	780 (-15%)	14mo	$85,000	$109	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $12,033
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $37,098
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,112/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$199
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $598

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,265

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 61st St E Unit 1 Palmetto, FL	1.0	1.0	681	$2,050	$3.01	24d	1	0.32mi
515 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	24d	1	0.86mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	0.93mi
9940 Mahaffey DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$1,700	$1.54	24d	1	1.46mi
6045 Bird Key Pl Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,005	$2.03	3d	220	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $199 · $2,388/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    price $125,000
16. 2026-03-05
    price $127,500
17. 2026-02-11
    listed $137,900 Active
18. 2008-10-08
    soldstatus $55,000
19. 2008-10-07
    soldstatus $55,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Wow! Newly updated! New Carpet and vinyl makes this home shine! Enjoy the peaceful life style that this 2 bedroom, 2 bath home provides. This home features an eat-in kitchen plus a formal dining room, and a sunny Florida Lanai. The community enjoys aclubhouse and a community pool. Sorry, no pets allowed.

20. 2008-02-14
    listed $69,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Wow! Newly updated! New Carpet and vinyl makes this home shine! Enjoy the peaceful life style that this 2 bedroom, 2 bath home provides. This home features an eat-in kitchen plus a formal dining room, and a sunny Florida Lanai. The community enjoys aclubhouse and a community pool. Sorry, no pets allowed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,112
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − HOA: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $5,620
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,349
• After-tax cash flow: $5,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+81.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $127,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $137,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-07 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-14 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,112 · -8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.