7037 Tin Cup · Abilene, TX 79606

$275,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,453 sqft · Land · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 7,841 sqft lot $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Agent related to owner. New Lantrip's Custom Home in Forrest Meadows, close to Wylie West schools. Open concept and split bedroom, this home offers both functionality and beauty. Features include wood-look vinyl flooring throughout, granite countertops, and custom cabinetry. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space and is complete with an island. The ensuite provides a spa-like vibe with a soaking tub, separate shower, dual sinks, and a large walk-in closet. Enjoy your coffee on the covered back porch overlooking the landscaped yard enclosed by a wooden privacy fence. Builder will provide a StrucSure 2-10 Warranty. Estimated completion- May 2026.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Open concept
• Custom home

Tags

• CUSTOM HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT
• WOOD LOOK VINYL FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• KITCHEN ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $729 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $276k).
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie West El (428 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.7%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,996/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1181% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $275,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.32%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $17,431
• Equity at exit: $41,138

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $146,542
• Equity at exit: $23,855

Cash invested: $77,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79606

• Rents YoY: 40.7%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,996 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,447
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $737/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $729

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,074

Max offer price $275,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,975
• Closing costs: $8,277
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7061 Tin Cup Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$3,495	$2.12	11d	1	0.03mi
6901 Glen Abbey St Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$3,795	$2.30	21d	1	0.14mi
3626 Yamini Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$2,799	$1.57	21d	1	0.26mi
7045 Phoenix Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1571	$2,714	$1.73	24d	1	0.29mi
7039 Phoenix Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$2,591	$2.00	24d	1	0.31mi
7610 Florence Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$2,640	$1.88	21d	1	0.38mi
3902 Karen Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1055	$2,495	$2.36	17d	1	0.55mi
4101 Karen Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,650	$2.01	7d	1	0.64mi
3925 Craig Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1014	$2,095	$2.07	13d	1	0.70mi
7601 Thompson Pkwy Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1495	$2,795	$1.87	13d	1	0.77mi
7825 Thompson Pkwy Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$2,295	$1.97	7d	1	0.90mi
8026 Vita Ct Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,495	$1.86	20d	1	1.07mi
7933 Hearne Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,695	$1.75	13d	1	1.10mi
6609 Summerwood Trl Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1851	$3,195	$1.73	5d	1	1.17mi
4742 Kevin Ct Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$3,400	$2.09	5d	1	1.18mi
5180 Western Plains Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,500	$1.46	5d	1	1.48mi
5733 Legacy Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$5,000	$2.71	4d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-16
   listed $275,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $737 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,049 · $421/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,311/yr (+$359/mo · 584.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,455
• − Property taxes: −$737
• − Insurance: −$1,380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,877
• − Management: −$2,877
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$8,026
• Taxable income: $4,426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,062
• After-tax cash flow: $7,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,182
• Household income: $79,196
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1181.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.33%
• Current HPI: 179.2555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.73%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $275,900 NTREIS