2906 Wilkinson Ave SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$429,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,250 sqft · Land · 110 Days on market

Built 2026 10,454 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Every home has a story, but this one feels like it's been waiting just for you. Positioned on a desirable corner lot, its striking stone façade and inviting entrance create an instant sense of welcome. Step inside and you're surrounded by light and space, with soaring 9.4-foot ceilings and elegant 8-foot doors setting the tone for modern living. At the heart of the home, the kitchen takes center stage a nine-foot quartz island ready for morning coffee, holiday meals, and late-night conversations. Porcelain tile flows seamlessly throughout, leading you to the owner's suite where a spa-inspired bath with a freestanding soaking tub and walk-in shower offers the perfect escape. Quality d

Key facts

• Stone façade
• Spa-inspired bath
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• STONE FAÇADE
• NINE-FOOT QUARTZ ISLAND
• SPA-INSPIRED BATH
• FREESTANDING SOAKING TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Built with block, brick, concrete and stone veneer
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: New construction; Residential use; Faces northeast
• Laundry & utility: Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (35.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (43.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (43.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 759 students, 58% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1123 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($391k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $292k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,452 (43.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.52%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $168,587
• Equity at exit: $387,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.59×
• Total profit: $552,834
• Equity at exit: $835,201

Cash invested: $120,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1123
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,425 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$537 /mo · $6,448/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-1,056

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,761

Max offer price $277,157

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-758	-5% $-907	+0% $-1,056	+5% $-1,204	+10% $-1,353
Rent	-10% $-1,247	-5% $-1,151	+0% $-1,056	+5% $-960	+10% $-864
Rate	-1.0pp $-839	-0.5pp $-946	base $-1,056	+0.5pp $-1,167	+1.0pp $-1,280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,475
• Closing costs: $12,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2877 Palisades Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,150	$1.09	21d	1	0.33mi
1213 Waterford St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,000	$1.18	25d	1	0.33mi
3004 Suntan Ct SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2388	$2,900	$1.21	25d	1	0.43mi
820 Tedder Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1808	$2,000	$1.11	25d	1	0.74mi
1453 Santa Anna St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,500	$1.25	16d	1	0.77mi
1046 Grantham Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.5	2405	$3,100	$1.29	25d	1	0.79mi
1496 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2187	$2,440	$1.12	16d	1	0.84mi
1165 Rabbit St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$1,895	$0.95	21d	1	0.95mi
2691 Tepee Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,040	$1.11	23d	1	1.01mi
830 Painesville St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,220	$1.09	15d	1	1.01mi
1783 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2207	$2,100	$0.95	25d	1	1.02mi
1406 Martinez St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2083	$2,100	$1.01	25d	1	1.07mi
1416 Martinez St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,000	$1.14	16d	1	1.08mi
543 Reading St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,010	$1.10	23d	1	1.16mi
3636 Aberdeen Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	21d	1	1.18mi
555 Gagnon St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2373	$2,400	$1.01	25d	1	1.20mi
1454 Graves St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,100	$1.30	16d	1	1.22mi
925 Dugan Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	15d	1	1.25mi
1394 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1876	$2,500	$1.33	21d	1	1.26mi
1224 Dillard Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,336	$1.32	15d	1	1.26mi
1434 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	15d	1	1.27mi
486 Dadeville St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,995	$1.09	16d	1	1.29mi
590 Trymore Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,250	$1.20	16d	1	1.32mi
3517 Rixford Way SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2562	$2,800	$1.09	25d	1	1.34mi
496 Vanguard St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,150	$1.29	25d	1	1.34mi
1884 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,000	$1.14	25d	1	1.43mi
1843 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,200	$1.21	25d	1	1.44mi
2242 Mantilla Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	5.0	2.0	2516	$2,176	$0.86	23d	1	1.48mi
1660 Lizette St SE Unit 1 Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1736	$2,199	$1.27	25d	1	1.48mi
1566 Criswell Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,400	$1.17	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $429,900 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,900 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,900 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,900 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,900 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $429,900 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $439,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $439,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $439,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,900 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $439,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,900 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,900 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    price $439,900
17. 2026-03-03
    listed $449,900 Active
18. 1997-10-21
    soldstatus $292,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 4 d/yr ≥106°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,081
• − Property taxes: −$6,448
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,328
• − Management: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$12,506
• Taxable loss: −$20,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,979
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+50.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $439,900 SCMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $449,900 SCMLS
• 1997-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $292,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $362 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.