14551 Butch Cassidy Dr · Log Cabin, TX 75148

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1991 0.36 ac lot Est $86k · 19% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable Log Cabin subdivision and zoned to Eustace Independent School District, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers room to spread out both inside and out! Featuring two living areas, this layout is ideal for gatherings, entertaining, or creating a second flex space, game room, or office. The kitchen includes a cozy breakfast nook plus a separate dining area nearby for additional seating and hosting. The primary suite features an ensuite bathroom complete with a garden tub, separate shower, and dual sink vanity. Two additional bedrooms are situated across the living area with a conveniently located hall bathroom nearby. A large utility room provides space for a

Key facts

• Cozy breakfast nook
• Two living areas
• Separate shower

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• COZY BREAKFAST NOOK
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport for 2 vehicles; Driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1991; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed and screened porch options including front, rear and side porches; Covered porch(es); Storage; Chain link fencing; Large backyard with grass and many trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in cabinets; Eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks, ensuite bath and walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bath with built-in cabinets, dual sinks, garden tub and separate shower
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 10
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with built-in cabinets; Full-size washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 29.8% vs local median 0.9% in Log Cabin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 38/100 on livability (#1,626 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eustace Pri (497 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.96%
• DSCR: 4.74
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,072
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5233 Sam Houston	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,592 (-2%)	1mo	$84,900	$53	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $76,059
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.13×
• Total profit: $178,946
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75148

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,541/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $1,371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $664

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,411	-5% $1,391	+0% $1,371	+5% $1,352	+10% $1,332
Rent	-10% $1,182	-5% $1,277	+0% $1,371	+5% $1,466	+10% $1,561
Rate	-1.0pp $1,407	-0.5pp $1,389	base $1,371	+0.5pp $1,353	+1.0pp $1,335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5320 Loma Vis Malakoff, TX	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,400	$1.81	44d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $70,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,541 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,541 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,541
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $16,344
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,922
• After-tax cash flow: $12,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Log Cabin

• Score: 38/100
• State rank: #1626
• US rank: #27499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Log Cabin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,944

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.76%
• Current HPI: 217.1629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $70,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,541 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.