45706 Belvoir Rd · California, MD 20634

$325,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,138 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1962 0.60 ac lot $152/sqft · 19% below area Est $402k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious home set on a large lot, offering sought-after features including energy-efficient solar panels. This split-foyer design includes an attached garage and is ideally located for an easy commute to Pax River, with convenient access to shopping and dining. Featuring 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home provides plenty of space for comfortable living. Come take a tour today!

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Finished below-grade area of 887; Above-grade finished area of 1,251
• Financial info: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service for heating/cooling/hot water
• Home design: Detached structure; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Below-grade finished area present

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level; Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one on upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric hot water; Other-type cooling with electric fuel
• Interior features: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in California — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenview Knolls Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #477 of 860 statewide, top 59%, 412 students, 62% FRL); Esperanza Middle (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #67 of 225 statewide, top 32%, 875 students, 41% FRL); Great Mills High (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,779 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 28% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $144k; list at $325k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,343 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.31%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $402,447
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -19.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45655 Centerview Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,088 (-2%)	4mo	$419,900	$201	82
22190 Goldenrod Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,084 (-2%)	5mo	$430,000	$206	69
45621 Taras Ct	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,232 (+4%)	1mo	$440,000	$197	68
22380 Gough Ter	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,212 (+4%)	5mo	$375,000	$170	64
45854 Church Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,079 (-3%)	11mo	$420,000	$202	58
45867 Broun Ter	0.35mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,279 (+7%)	8mo	$326,000	$143	57
22254 Linwood Way	0.42mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,092 (-2%)	18mo	$375,000	$179	53
22136 Snapdragon Ct	0.32mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,382 (+11%)	2mo	$489,900	$206	53
22121 Goldenrod Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,313 (+8%)	15mo	$410,000	$177	48
45538 Longfields Blvd	0.49mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,316 (+8%)	17mo	$427,500	$185	42
21897 Chancellors Run Rd	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,310 (+8%)	17mo	$370,000	$160	38
22526 Duleek Way	0.67mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,018 (-6%)	15mo	$360,000	$178	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-45,105
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-29,654
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20634

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,823 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,591/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,672

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $303	-5% $211	+0% $119	+5% $27	+10% $-65
Rent	-10% $-104	-5% $8	+0% $119	+5% $231	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $283	-0.5pp $202	base $119	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $-51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 32 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    historical $325,000 398-char remark
19. 2001-07-19
    soldstatus $144,000
20. 1987-06-26
    soldstatus $91,971
21. 1986-08-07
    soldstatus $87,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,591 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,067 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$476/yr (+$40/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,591
• − Insurance: −$2,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,710
• − Management: −$2,710
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$4,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$980
• After-tax cash flow: $2,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — California

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #5421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 14,212
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 7,088
• Household income: $139,375
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 111.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 31% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.78%
• Current HPI: 244.1447
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+271.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $325,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $144,000 Public Records
• 1987-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $91,971 Public Records
• 1986-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,591 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.