3889 Gary Rd · Arnold, MO 63010

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · Other public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1957 0.93 ac lot $144/sqft · 49% below area ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this ranch home tucked away on the outskirts of Arnold, MO, set on nearly an acre with a sprawling front yard and a private backyard backing to mature woods. This property offers incredible potential in a highly desirable area, making it a standout opportunity for investors or buyers looking to build equity. Inside, you’ll find a spacious living room filled with natural light that flows into a generously sized kitchen with ample cabinet storage and room to create a modern open-concept design. The home features 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, offering a solid foundation for renovation or rental potential. Original woodwork, functional living spaces, and a flexib

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Sprawling front yard
• Private backyard

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• SPRAWLING FRONT YARD
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• MATURE WOODS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• GENEROUSLY SIZED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Ameren electric service; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Adjoins wooded area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Walk-out basement; Unfinished concrete basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.1% in Arnold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fox C-6 (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #103 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fox Elem. (math 33% / reading 39%, grade F, #662 of 1,115 statewide, top 60%, 380 students, 40% FRL); Fox Sr. High (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 1,742 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.23%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,475
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -58.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $9,377
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $41,025
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63010

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $704/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $790

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $99,900 1080-char remark
15. 2026-05-03
    listed $109,900 Active 1080-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $704 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$265/yr (+$22/mo · 37.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,583
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$704
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,384
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$812
• After-tax cash flow: $4,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fox C-6
• NCES district ID: 2912300
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,849
• Composite: 37.54/100
• National rank: #4392
• State rank: #103 of 324 in MO

Livability — Arnold

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #17082

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 108,544 people
• City population: 34,478
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 34,478
• Household income: $79,784
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 422.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% American 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.53%
• Current HPI: 190.586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Listed $109,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $704 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.