9018 Leeward Dr · Ellenton, FL 34221

$297,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,489 sqft · Townhouse · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $199/sqft · 7% below area Est $318k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to the Opal. An elegant villa, its floorplan includes three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. Stepping into the front door, a foyer opens out into the main living spaces. A guest bedroom sits to the side of the entry. A kitchen lines along one wall and opens directly into the dining space. Behind that, a great room sits with an optional tray ceiling to create more distinct spaces. Off of the great room is the master retreat. The perfect space for ultimate relaxation, it features a large walk-in closet and master bathroom. With dual vanities and a walk-in shower, there's plenty of space to spread out.

Key facts

• Master retreat
• Walk-in closet
• Covered lanai

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• MASTER RETREAT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED LANAI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $297k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1580 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $236,900 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,237
• List price: $297,000
• Delta: -6.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9014 Leeward Dr	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (0%)	1mo	$299,999	$201	94
9006 Leeward Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+13%)	0mo	$324,999	$193	72
5011 72nd St E	1.34mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-3%)	1mo	$322,500	$223	59
10911 44th Ave E	1.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+1%)	1mo	$337,000	$225	58
9311 27th Ave E	0.98mi	3/2.0	1,563 (+5%)	1mo	$296,500	$190	56
5714 Los Robles Ct	1.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,633 (+10%)	1mo	$350,000	$214	43
10025 Craftsman Park Way	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (+25%)	0mo	$430,000	$232	40
5209 Lansdowne Way	1.08mi	3/2.0	1,713 (+15%)	0mo	$395,000	$231	40
8410 Castle Garden Rd	1.22mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+18%)	1mo	$250,000	$142	39
8520 Countess Avenue Cir	1.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+13%)	0mo	$258,900	$154	38
4732 Alexandria Ct	0.99mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+14%)	1mo	$400,000	$235	36
8469 Imperial Lakes Cir	1.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,795 (+21%)	1mo	$290,000	$162	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-66,561
• Equity at exit: $44,284

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-99,489
• Equity at exit: $25,679

Cash invested: $83,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active
• Median asking: $319,999 ($190/sqft)
• Median days on market: 292 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1580
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,369 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,455/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,598

Max offer price $270,810

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-78	+0% $-181	+5% $-284	+10% $-386
Rent	-10% $-368	-5% $-275	+0% $-181	+5% $-87	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-105	base $-181	+0.5pp $-258	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,250
• Closing costs: $8,910
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9117 Optimist Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1489	$2,200	$1.48	119d	1	0.05mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	116d	1	0.44mi
4030 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,216	$1.53	4d	1	0.45mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,266	$1.46	4d	1	0.49mi
9204 34th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	2d	1	0.60mi
3506 100th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$2,019	$1.77	63d	1	0.70mi
5020 Cedar Leaf Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,322	$2.66	2d	20	0.75mi
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$2,403	$2.18	4d	39	0.76mi
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,342	$2.23	119d	99	0.76mi
2706 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1637	$2,400	$1.47	81d	1	0.91mi
5635 Spanish Point Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$2,000	$1.44	65d	1	1.00mi
9035 Vista Verde Dr Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1518	$1,950	$1.28	81d	1	1.00mi
2307 89th St E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,425	$2.62	0d	35	1.02mi
2896 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1637	$2,199	$1.34	9d	1	1.03mi
5511 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,700	$1.65	87d	1	1.13mi
5871 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,185	$1.46	116d	1	1.21mi
11019 Bud Rhoden Rd Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,499	$1.53	87d	1	1.28mi
5331 Rushmere Ct Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1582	$2,600	$1.64	119d	1	1.32mi
5331 Rushmere Ct Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1573	$2,600	$1.65	9d	1	1.32mi
3539 70th Gln E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,975	$1.55	4d	1	1.40mi
10340 Oakside Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1396	$2,000	$1.43	9d	1	1.48mi
8132 Tea Olive Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,500	$1.47	119d	1	1.48mi
6210 Terra Lago Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,539	$2.50	0d	46	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $297,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-02
   listed $297,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,455
• − Insurance: −$1,485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,274
• − Management: −$2,274
• − Depreciation: −$8,640
• Taxable loss: −$7,337
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,761
• After-tax cash flow: $-411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both New flooring — Can improve the look and feel of the home, especially in high-traffic areas ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B