1233 Ensley Dr · Bellefontaine Neighbors, MO 63137

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,263 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1953 7,501 sqft lot Est $112k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Coming Soon! Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home located in the heart of Bellefontaine Neighbors. This property offers convenient main-floor living with an attached 1-car garage and backyard access directly off the living room, creating an easy flow for entertainment or relaxation outdoors. Inside, you'll find a nice updated full bathroom and a modernized kitchen featuring a center island and plenty of functionality. This home offers great potential for a buyer looking to add their own cosmetic touches and make it their own after 16 years of homeownership. Situated in a desirable area featuring community centers, walking trails, and local eaterys all just 20 mins nor

Key facts

• 7,501 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric: other
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential property; Fixer condition
• Construction: Brick and concrete construction; Basement: concrete, unfinished, other features with sump pump
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Bar; Kitchen island; Kitchen/dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 9.5% in Bellefontaine Neighbors — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#592 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gibson Elem. (math 0% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,097 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 429 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.37%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,407
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1250 Admiral Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+2%)	4mo	$115,000	$89	84
1331 Norchester Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-2%)	2mo	$209,900	$169	82
1443 Attica Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,302 (+3%)	3mo	$159,600	$123	64
1295 Chambers Rd	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,148 (-9%)	7mo	$87,000	$76	60
10006 Castle Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,178 (-7%)	5mo	$35,900	$30	59
10249 Coburg Lands Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-4%)	6mo	$115,000	$95	56
9737 Wendell Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,183 (-6%)	4mo	$60,000	$51	56
9922 Lanier Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,159 (-8%)	5mo	$85,000	$73	49
9732 Cambria Dr	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,434 (+14%)	2mo	$114,900	$80	47
10233 Unicorn Dr	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,116 (-12%)	6mo	$146,450	$131	45
10129 Ashbrook Dr	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,445 (+14%)	4mo	$79,900	$55	42
10201 Surf Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,074 (-15%)	5mo	$114,900	$107	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $22,139
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $83,688
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63137

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,783/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $832

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9908 Norbridge Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,650	$1.33	19d	1	0.22mi
1130 Forest Home Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	43d	1	0.30mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	10d	1	0.30mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	7d	1	0.58mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	16d	1	0.61mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	23d	1	0.62mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	43d	1	0.69mi
10331 Ewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1658	$1,540	$0.93	3d	1	0.76mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	23d	1	0.77mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	43d	1	0.77mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	23d	1	0.82mi
1115 Bakewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	916	$1,300	$1.42	43d	1	0.87mi
10367 Coburg Lands Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,270	$1.39	43d	1	0.89mi
637 Karess Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,525	$1.28	12d	1	0.90mi
1230 Roxton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	21d	1	0.93mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	43d	1	0.94mi
1009 Bliss Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	43d	1	0.94mi
2257 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	23d	1	0.98mi
9517 West Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	43d	1	0.99mi
10203 Trio Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,435	$1.57	16d	1	1.01mi
10066 Dorothy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	916	$1,225	$1.34	21d	1	1.02mi
9924 Gloucester Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	992	$1,565	$1.58	10d	1	1.02mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	23d	1	1.04mi
9943 Lilac Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1086	$1,000	$0.92	43d	1	1.05mi
1238 Hoyt Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,400	$1.19	21d	1	1.08mi
10201 McCartney Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,565	$1.04	16d	1	1.09mi
10441 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1380	$1,380	$1.00	43d	1	1.09mi
1225 Newark Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	944	$1,400	$1.48	3d	1	1.09mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	1.12mi
1208 Rapid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	4d	1	1.14mi
808 Bella Ln Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	17d	1	1.14mi
10508 Druid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,475	$1.31	16d	1	1.14mi
10052 Lilac Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1143	$1,100	$0.96	7d	1	1.16mi
956 Fontaine Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1192	$1,400	$1.17	23d	1	1.18mi
10501 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,090	$0.96	43d	1	1.19mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	23d	1	1.19mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	21d	1	1.20mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	14d	1	1.22mi
460 Bluff Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1002	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	1.23mi
9418 Pattonwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	982	$1,500	$1.53	23d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $89,900 Coming Soon 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,900 Coming Soon 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,900 Coming Soon 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,900 Coming Soon 10 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Coming Soon 9 DOM
6. 2026-05-23
   historical $89,900
7. 2009-10-13
   soldstatus $80,000
8. 2007-09-14
   soldstatus
9. 2007-09-14
   soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,783 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,783 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,783
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,395
• − Management: −$1,395
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $4,761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,143
• After-tax cash flow: $4,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bellefontaine Neighbors

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #20944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellefontaine Neighbors, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 19,684
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 19,684
• Household income: $43,422
• Rent vs Own: 52.2% rent · 47.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1863.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 82% White 13% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.70%
• Current HPI: 130.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+55.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Coming Soon $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,783 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.