1128 S Gay Ave #86 · Callaway, FL 32404

$94,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $616/mo HOA · 36% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Be the very first to call this stunning, brand new 2026 Clayton Mariner home yours! Offering 1,216 square feet of beautifully designed living space, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is the perfect blend of modern style and everyday comfort, located in the pet-friendly Countryside Estates community in Panama City, FL (breed restrictions apply). The kitchen is truly the heart of this home, featuring a huge island that's perfect for meal prep, entertaining, or casual family gatherings, along with sleek stainless steel appliances that bring a fresh, contemporary feel. The spacious master suite includes a roomy walk-in closet, while a stylish accent wall in the living room adds the perfect design

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Huge island
• Built 2026

Tags

• HUGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PET-FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• SHORT DRIVE TO ST ANDREWS BAY
• CONVENIENT SHOPPING AND DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1128 S Gay Ave #86, Panama City, FL 32404; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $94,995
• HOA & community: Association fee $616

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating (heat pump); Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec new construction (Clayton Mariner plan)
• Construction: Living area 1216
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($852/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.1% in Callaway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#690 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,995

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.20%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,336
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1215 Tammy Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,278 (+5%)	9mo	$249,900	$196	60
5318 Lake Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+3%)	17mo	$290,500	$232	47
6224 Lance St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+8%)	12mo	$235,000	$180	46
5316 Lake Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+3%)	17mo	$290,000	$231	46
1201 S Kimbrel	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+15%)	23mo	$265,000	$190	41
705 S Camellia Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,278 (+5%)	24mo	$190,000	$149	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-13,626
• Equity at exit: $14,164

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-16,880
• Equity at exit: $8,213

Cash invested: $26,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,701 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$616
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,611

Max offer price $94,995

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,749
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1128 S Gay Ave Lot 56 Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1216	$35,000	$28.78	21d	1	0.03mi
1128 S Gay Ave Lot V Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$30,000	$26.04	21d	1	0.03mi
1128 S Gay Ave Lot 86 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$94,995	$78.12	21d	1	0.03mi
1128 S Gay Ave Lot N Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	924	$40,000	$43.29	21d	1	0.03mi
5813 Hickory St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	21d	1	0.93mi
509 Phillips Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,700	$1.20	13d	1	0.94mi
719 S Berthe Ave Unit 8 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	910	$1,000	$1.10	21d	1	1.03mi
322 S Burkett Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	600	$1,519	$2.53	13d	13	1.11mi
543 N 9th St Unit 543 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	13d	1	1.15mi
4828 Grimes St #3 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,150	$1.35	21d	1	1.17mi
6600 Oakshore Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,325	$2.32	13d	57	1.28mi
6328 Olokee St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,850	$1.64	13d	1	1.29mi
4837 S Lakewood Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1116	$1,500	$1.34	21d	1	1.31mi
114 S Kimbrel Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	21d	1	1.33mi
4480 E Highway 98 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	972	$1,250	$1.29	21d	1	1.43mi
4480 East Highway 98 Unit 1 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,250	$1.29	21d	1	1.43mi
5805 Cherry St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,200	$1.17	13d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $616 · $7,392/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,995 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,995 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,995 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,995 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,995 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,995 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,995 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,995 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,995 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,995 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $94,995 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − HOA: −$7,392
• − Depreciation: −$2,763
• Taxable loss: −$235
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$56
• After-tax cash flow: $908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new 2026 Clayton Mariner home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a stunning blend of modern style and everyday comfort, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the overall curb appeal and make the home more inviting.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the overall curb appeal and make the home more inviting. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Callaway

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #14384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Callaway, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B