1128 S Gay Ave #86 · Callaway, FL 32404

$94,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $78/sqft · 64% below area $616/mo HOA · 38% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Be the very first to call this stunning, brand new 2026 Clayton Mariner home yours! Offering 1,216 square feet of beautifully designed living space, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is the perfect blend of modern style and everyday comfort, located in the pet-friendly Countryside Estates community in Panama City, FL (breed restrictions apply). The kitchen is truly the heart of this home, featuring a huge island that's perfect for meal prep, entertaining, or casual family gatherings, along with sleek stainless steel appliances that bring a fresh, contemporary feel.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Huge island
• Built 2026

Tags

• HUGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PET-FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• SHORT DRIVE TO ST ANDREWS BAY
• CONVENIENT SHOPPING AND DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($102/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.6% in Callaway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#690 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Parker Elementary School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,951 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 496 students, 74% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1368 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,145 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,602
• List price: $94,995
• Delta: -64.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5917 Wallace Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	7mo	$265,000	$218	88
1029 Ethlyn Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,264 (+4%)	6mo	$225,000	$178	66
6207 Ivy Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+8%)	6mo	$257,000	$196	63
1211 Tammy Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,185 (-2%)	11mo	$239,900	$202	63
6209 Pridgen St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+1%)	9mo	$186,000	$151	62
1215 Tammy Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,278 (+5%)	12mo	$249,900	$196	57
922 Arrow St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-3%)	7mo	$130,500	$111	56
6205 Boat Race Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,107 (-9%)	9mo	$175,000	$158	53
6317 Wallace Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+15%)	6mo	$254,000	$182	49
5916 Lake Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+7%)	12mo	$177,000	$136	48
5320 Lake Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+12%)	2mo	$316,000	$231	44
1118 S Comet Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+14%)	10mo	$260,000	$188	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-17,461
• Equity at exit: $14,164

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-24,769
• Equity at exit: $8,213

Cash invested: $26,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.2 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $264,900 ($206/sqft)
• Median days on market: 67 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1368
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$616
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,611

Max offer price $94,995

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $74	-5% $41	+0% $8	+5% $-24	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-120	-5% $-56	+0% $8	+5% $73	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $33	base $8	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,749
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1128 S Gay Ave Lot N Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	924	$40,000	$43.29	117d	1	0.03mi
1128 S Gay Ave Lot 86 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$94,995	$78.12	117d	1	0.03mi
1128 S Gay Ave Lot V Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$30,000	$26.04	117d	1	0.03mi
1128 S Gay Ave Lot 56 Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1216	$35,000	$28.78	117d	1	0.03mi
1042 Brannon Pl Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,200	$1.17	6d	1	0.56mi
6319 Pridgen St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	6d	1	0.72mi
401 Rhett's Loop Callaway, FL	3.0	2.5	1490	$1,925	$1.29	0d	3	0.84mi
6039 East Highway 98 Unit 1 Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,400	$1.37	6d	1	0.89mi
709 South Highway 22 A Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,300	$1.15	2d	1	0.93mi
5813 Hickory St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	117d	1	0.93mi
509 Phillips Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,700	$1.20	109d	1	0.94mi
719 S Berthe Ave Unit 13 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	910	$1,000	$1.10	6d	1	1.03mi
719 S Berthe Ave Unit 8 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	910	$1,000	$1.10	117d	1	1.03mi
322 S Burkett Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,533	$2.04	4d	11	1.11mi
543 N 9th St Unit 543 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	109d	1	1.15mi
4828 Grimes St #3 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,150	$1.35	117d	1	1.17mi
617 N 9th Plz Panama City, FL	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,700	$1.24	6d	1	1.18mi
25 Wood Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,595	$1.31	6d	1	1.22mi
6321 Lenawee St Apt C3 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	6d	1	1.23mi
852 West St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,150	$1.18	6d	1	1.29mi
6328 Olokee St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,850	$1.64	109d	1	1.29mi
834 West St Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$895	$0.92	6d	1	1.30mi
802 West St Unit 802 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,125	$1.16	6d	1	1.31mi
4837 S Lakewood Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1116	$1,500	$1.34	117d	1	1.31mi
114 S Kimbrel Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	117d	1	1.33mi
4480 East Highway 98 Unit 1 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,250	$1.29	117d	1	1.43mi
4480 E Highway 98 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	972	$1,250	$1.29	117d	1	1.43mi
112 Parker Village Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1149	$1,500	$1.31	6d	1	1.43mi
5719 Cherry St Callaway, FL	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,200	$1.17	6d	1	1.44mi
5805 Cherry St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,200	$1.17	109d	1	1.45mi
6600 Oakshore Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,325	$2.32	0d	58	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1128 S Gay Ave #86, Panama City, FL 32404Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $94,995
• HOA & community: Association fee $616

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating (heat pump)Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec new construction (Clayton Mariner plan)
• Construction: Living area 1216
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherRefrigerator

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-07-23
   days on market $94,995 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-07-22
   days on market $94,995 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-07-21
   days on market $94,995 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-07-18
   days on market $94,995 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-07-16
   days on market $94,995 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-07-16
   days on market $94,995 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-07-14
   days on market $94,995 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-07-13
   days on market $94,995 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-07-12
   days on market $94,995 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-07-11
    days on market $94,995 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-07-10
    days on market $94,995 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-07-09
    days on market $94,995 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-07-08
    days on market $94,995 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-07-07
    days on market $94,995 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-07-06
    days on market $94,995 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-07-05
    days on market $94,995 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-07-04
    days on market $94,995 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-07-03
    days on market $94,995 Active 28 DOM
19. 2026-07-02
    days on market $94,995 Active 27 DOM
20. 2026-07-01
    days on market $94,995 Active 26 DOM
21. 2026-06-30
    days on market $94,995 Active 25 DOM
22. 2026-06-29
    days on market $94,995 Active 24 DOM
23. 2026-06-28
    days on market $94,995 Active 23 DOM
24. 2026-06-28
    days on market $94,995 Active 22 DOM
25. 2026-06-27
    days on market $94,995 Active 21 DOM
26. 2026-06-25
    days on market $94,995 Active 19 DOM
27. 2026-06-23
    days on market $94,995 Active 17 DOM
28. 2026-06-21
    days on market $94,995 Active 16 DOM
29. 2026-06-19
    days on market $94,995 Active 14 DOM
30. 2026-06-18
    days on market $94,995 Active 13 DOM
31. 2026-06-17
    days on market $94,995 Active 12 DOM
32. 2026-06-16
    days on market $94,995 Active 11 DOM
33. 2026-06-15
    days on market $94,995 Active 10 DOM
34. 2026-06-14
    days on market $94,995 Active 8 DOM
35. 2026-06-13
    days on market $94,995 Active 7 DOM
36. 2026-06-10
    days on market $94,995 Active 5 DOM
37. 2026-06-09
    days on market $94,995 Active 4 DOM
38. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,995 Active 3 DOM
39. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
40. 2026-06-07
    listed $94,995 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − HOA: −$7,392
• − Depreciation: −$2,763
• Taxable loss: −$1,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$248
• After-tax cash flow: $349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new 2026 Clayton Mariner home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a stunning blend of modern style and everyday comfort, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the overall curb appeal and make the home more inviting. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Parker Elementary School F FL #1,951/2,144 Nat'l #28,175/41,679 High Rutherford High School F FL #489/667 Nat'l #12,196/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Callaway

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #14384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Callaway, FL
• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1128 S Gay Ave #86, Panama City, FL 32404Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $94,995
• HOA & community: Association fee $616

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating (heat pump)Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec new construction (Clayton Mariner plan)
• Construction: Living area 1216
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherRefrigerator