3023 Ruby Ridge Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$319,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2024 6,420 sqft lot $177/sqft · 14% below area Est $372k · 14% under $97/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW! Lennar Core Classic Collection “Nash” Plan with Elevation “K4” in Sunterra! This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while two secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Private owners suite
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE OWNERS SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENHANCED FLOORING
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association (PMG) with annual fee; Annual association fee covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2024; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Brick and cement siding construction
• Construction: Built in 2024; Brick and cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Fully fenced backyard; Private yard; Back yard fencing; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; HVAC energy-efficient features
• Interior features: Double vanity; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Quartz counters; Tub with shower; Walk-in pantry; Window treatments; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 14784% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,302 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.75%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,582
• List price: $319,999
• Delta: -13.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27618 Spearmint Ridge Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-1%)	0mo	$345,990	$193	84
3017 Paradise Capri Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,883 (+4%)	0mo	$300,000	$159	80
3036 Huntersville Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,876 (+4%)	1mo	$334,990	$179	67
3020 Huntersville Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,876 (+4%)	1mo	$334,990	$179	66
3009 Duskshine Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (-2%)	1mo	$316,990	$178	62
3064 Sunset Glory Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,749 (-3%)	1mo	$365,990	$209	62
27602 Loyalty Islands Ln	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,015 (+12%)	1mo	$354,990	$176	60
3008 Angelic Rose Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (-7%)	1mo	$294,990	$177	53
27519 Crystalline Sage Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,035 (+13%)	0mo	$371,990	$183	52
3072 Sunset Glory Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (-7%)	0mo	$292,990	$175	51
3044 Waterwood Pass Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,973 (+9%)	1mo	$361,990	$183	50
3056 Huntersville Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,015 (+12%)	0mo	$346,990	$172	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-76,888
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-117,785
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,483 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$333 /mo · $3,994/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$97
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,837

Max offer price $270,591

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-99	-5% $-189	+0% $-280	+5% $-370	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-476	-5% $-378	+0% $-280	+5% $-182	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-198	base $-280	+0.5pp $-363	+1.0pp $-447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	22d	1	0.12mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	13d	1	0.12mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	44d	1	0.14mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	16d	1	0.14mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	0.14mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	25d	1	0.19mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	44d	1	0.36mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	2d	1	0.41mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	17d	1	0.45mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	25d	1	0.48mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	44d	1	0.49mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	44d	1	0.52mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	0.54mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	0.61mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	44d	1	0.62mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	13d	1	0.65mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	25d	1	0.65mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	44d	1	0.68mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	25d	1	0.69mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	25d	1	0.71mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	13d	1	0.72mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	25d	1	0.73mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	0.76mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	21d	1	0.78mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,406	$1.41	2d	25	1.10mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	44d	1	1.21mi
435 Lone Rider Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,895	$1.40	44d	1	1.29mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	44d	1	1.38mi
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	44d	1	1.41mi
26802 Cenzontle Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $97 · $1,164/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,999 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,999 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,999 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,999 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $319,999 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $319,999 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $325,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $325,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $325,000 Active 836-char remark
14. 2025-06-20
    soldstatus Sold 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Core Classic Collection “Nash” Plan with Elevation “K4” in Sunterra! This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while two secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

15. 2025-05-27
    status Pending 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Core Classic Collection “Nash” Plan with Elevation “K4” in Sunterra! This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while two secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

16. 2025-05-24
    price $371,990 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Core Classic Collection “Nash” Plan with Elevation “K4” in Sunterra! This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while two secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2025-05-19
    price $295,000 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Core Classic Collection “Nash” Plan with Elevation “K4” in Sunterra! This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while two secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

18. 2025-05-19
    listed $371,990 Active 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Core Classic Collection “Nash” Plan with Elevation “K4” in Sunterra! This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while two secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

19. 2025-05-18
    historical
20. 2025-05-06
    price $295,000
21. 2025-04-24
    price $300,000
22. 2025-04-08
    price $310,000
23. 2025-02-06
    price $325,000
24. 2025-02-03
    price $330,000
25. 2025-01-15
    listed $340,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,994 · $333/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,856 · $488/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,862/yr (+$155/mo · 46.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$3,994
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,384
• − Management: −$2,384
• − HOA: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$8,963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,151
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Rental Removed $2,150 HARMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Listed for Rent $2,150 HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $319,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $371,990 HARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $371,990 HARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Listed $340,000 HARMLS