6127 Blue Paloma Ct · Memphis, FL 34221

$359,390

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,580 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $139/sqft · 15% below area Est $422k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Boasting two stories, the Concord is the largest single-family home in this collection. The first floor features a modern design with an open kitchen, living room and dining room, along with a versatile bedroom ideal for overnight guests. The second floor is home to four bedrooms, an adaptable loft and the spacious owner's suite.

Key facts

• Adaptable loft
• Versatile bedroom
• Open kitchen

Tags

• TWO STORIES
• OPEN KITCHEN
• VERSATILE BEDROOM
• ADAPTABLE LOFT
• SPACIOUS OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $359k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $331k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $331k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.9% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1452 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,309/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $330,938 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $422,437
• List price: $359,390
• Delta: -14.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3268 Osteen Cv	1.17mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,544 (-1%)	8mo	$440,072	$173	51
4403 Dusky Dawn Ln	1.48mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	11mo	$409,990	$157	50
6334 Flagstone Trl	1.43mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	19mo	$424,990	$163	42
6411 Flagstone Trl	1.43mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	21mo	$419,990	$161	41
6404 Flagstone Trl	1.44mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	21mo	$409,990	$157	41
6431 Flagstone Trl	1.46mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	22mo	$441,990	$170	40
6119 Flagstone Trl	1.44mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	23mo	$413,990	$159	39
6123 Flagstone Trl	1.44mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	24mo	$413,990	$159	39
8656 40th Cir E	1.44mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,909 (+13%)	10mo	$415,000	$143	28
4110 70th Street Cir E	1.08mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,962 (+15%)	11mo	$435,000	$147	26
3903 71st St E	0.93mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,254 (-13%)	15mo	$509,000	$226	25
4413 Stargazer Ct	1.46mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,934 (+14%)	23mo	$449,990	$153	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-59,558
• Equity at exit: $53,586

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-78,417
• Equity at exit: $31,073

Cash invested: $100,629 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $367,740 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1452
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,885
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$449 /mo · $5,391/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$695
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,144

Max offer price $359,390

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $379	-5% $255	+0% $131	+5% $7	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $0	+0% $131	+5% $261	+10% $392
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $222	base $131	+0.5pp $38	+1.0pp $-57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,848
• Closing costs: $10,782
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6011 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,400	$1.02	30d	1	0.02mi
6115 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	5.0	2.5	2217	$2,825	$1.27	32d	1	0.02mi
8518 41st Ave E Palmetto, FL	6.0	3.0	3086	$3,216	$1.04	35d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $359,390 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   pricedays on market $359,390 Active 38 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,131
• − Property taxes: −$5,391
• − Insurance: −$1,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,177
• − Management: −$3,177
• − Depreciation: −$10,455
• Taxable loss: −$4,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,060
• After-tax cash flow: $2,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,900–$38,700 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with modern design and ample space. It requires minor updates to the interior walls and flooring to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring increases value and is easier to maintain ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features improve convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B