37644 Pinata Ave · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1998 4,131 sqft lot Est $130k · 30% over $142/mo HOA · 8% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AFFORDABLE, TURNKEY FLORIDA LIVING! Nestled in the heart of the vibrant 55+ community of Spanish Trails West, 37644 Pinata Avenue offers resort-style living defined by comfort, connection, and the freedom of ownership with NO LOT RENT. The story of this home is one of meticulous care and continuous improvement, including a BRAND-NEW ROOF (APRIL 2026), new front entry door (SEP 2023), and updated DOUBLE-HUNG, ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS (July 2022). This residence features a desirable 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, SPLIT FLOOR PLAN providing 1,248 SQUARE FEET of living space that includes a bright, ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM with a view of the pond and fountain for year-round enjoyment. Inside and out, the

Key facts

• Interior laundry
• New front entry door
• Walk-in tub

Tags

• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• NEW FRONT ENTRY DOOR
• ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• WALK-IN TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.09 acres (50x82) on a private maintained asphalt road; Total living area reported as 1,248 sq ft; building area reported as 1,680 sq ft
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $142 (includes cable TV, pool, internet, grounds maintenance, private road maintenance, recreational facilities); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, recreation facilities; Association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (breed, number, size)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered driveway with tandem parking; 2-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered enclosed rear porch / patio; Patio; Sliding doors; Storage; Workshop; In-ground heated pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located inside (laundry closet / in kitchen)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.6% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $170k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.89%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,272
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37838 Barcelona Ave	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,128 (+2%)	4mo	$136,000	$121	79
6902 Orlo Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (0%)	2mo	$75,000	$68	79
37817 Granada Ave	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	4mo	$125,000	$118	75
37642 Amigo Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+9%)	14mo	$156,000	$130	73
37838 Granada Ave	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	9mo	$139,000	$132	70
37820 Madeira Ave	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	16mo	$139,000	$132	67
7053 EL Conquistador St	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	12mo	$122,000	$116	67
37611 Amigo Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,196 (+8%)	14mo	$140,000	$117	67
37848 Barcelona Ave	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	13mo	$125,000	$118	67
37452 Attica Ave	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,028 (-7%)	5mo	$94,000	$91	66
37648 Campo Ave	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	972 (-12%)	11mo	$114,000	$117	59
7141 EL Matador St	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,218 (+10%)	15mo	$137,500	$113	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-13,038
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,679
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $617/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$142
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,462

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $409	-5% $361	+0% $313	+5% $265	+10% $217
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $239	+0% $313	+5% $386	+10% $460
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $356	base $313	+0.5pp $269	+1.0pp $224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	6d	1	0.14mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	25d	1	0.66mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	21d	1	0.71mi
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$2,315	$2.15	0d	33	0.74mi
6262 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,700	$1.25	25d	1	0.76mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	25d	1	0.76mi
6246 Timberly Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,900	$1.39	25d	1	0.77mi
37661 Aaralyn Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	0.77mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	25d	1	0.78mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	25d	1	0.83mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,999	$2.34	3d	142	0.86mi
6773 Branham Mill Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	25d	1	0.91mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	25d	1	0.93mi
6195 Daerr Ridge St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,000	$1.44	19d	1	0.94mi
38300 Henry Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	6d	1	1.02mi
6136 Pina Colada St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	13d	1	1.03mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	6d	1	1.29mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	25d	1	1.29mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	25d	1	1.41mi
38621 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,495	$1.44	0d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $142 · $1,704/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    listed $169,900 Active
15. 2016-09-20
    soldstatus $70,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $617 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,410 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$793/yr (+$66/mo · 128.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$617
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,784
• − Management: −$1,784
• − HOA: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,101
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$264
• After-tax cash flow: $3,489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+141.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $617 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.