5243 Mangas Trl · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1995

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Four bedroom home that sits on a huge lot in cul-de-sac with plenty of room to park your toys. Two living rooms and has views!

Key facts

• Pantry
• Refrigerated air
• Soaking tub

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SKYLIGHT
• REFRIGERATED AIR
• SOAKING TUB
• PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Columbia Elementary (225 students, 100% FRL); Vista Middle (602 students, 100% FRL); Organ Mountain High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #56 of 110 statewide, top 50%, 1,980 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 598 active listings in the ZIP; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,716 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.01%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,524
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $8,488
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,299/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,563

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $345	-5% $289	+0% $232	+5% $176	+10% $120
Rent	-10% $86	-5% $159	+0% $232	+5% $306	+10% $379
Rate	-1.0pp $333	-0.5pp $283	base $232	+0.5pp $181	+1.0pp $128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $199,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $199,000 Active
17. 2022-03-10
    soldstatus 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Four bedroom home that sits on a huge lot in cul-de-sac with plenty of room to park your toys. Two living rooms and has views!

18. 2022-03-10
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Four bedroom home that sits on a huge lot in cul-de-sac with plenty of room to park your toys. Two living rooms and has views!

19. 2021-12-23
    listed $169,900 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Four bedroom home that sits on a huge lot in cul-de-sac with plenty of room to park your toys. Two living rooms and has views!

20. 2009-09-30
    soldstatus
21. 2000-07-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,299 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,592 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$293/yr (+$24/mo · 22.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,299
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$122
• After-tax cash flow: $2,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+17.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $199,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-10 Sold (MLS) — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2021-12-23 Listed $169,900 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2009-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,299 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.