4883 Marrowbone Creek Rd · Elkhorn City, KY 41522

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1950 1.50 ac lot $34/sqft · 65% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Perfect opportunity to own something with a little bit of land, direct access to a creek, and a home to turn into your own! Home is being sold as is. Proof of funds must be presented with offers.

Key facts

• 1.5 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 18 days

Tags

• DIRECT ACCESS TO A CREEK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: House; One story
• Construction: Metal roof; Other foundation; Other construction materials; Built area approximately 1,447
• Exterior features: Few trees on the lot; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#394 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pike County Day Treatment (math 24% / reading 24%, 14 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $40k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.18%
• DSCR: 3.54
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,917
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -71.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $11,913
• Equity at exit: $17,986

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $33,227
• Equity at exit: $27,718

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41522

• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $492/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $878

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $118	+0% $107	+5% $96	+10% $84
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $67	+0% $107	+5% $147	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $117	base $107	+0.5pp $97	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $40,000 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $40,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $40,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-05-13
   listed $40,000 Active 195-char remark
6. 1999-06-01
   soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$492
• − Insurance: −$5,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$973
• − Management: −$973
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $1,007
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$242
• After-tax cash flow: $1,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Elkhorn City

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #394
• US rank: #18934

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,847

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $40,000 ImagineMLS
• 1999-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-16.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $492 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.