907 Orchid St · Lady Lake, FL 32159

$199,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,698 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1988 5,400 sqft lot Est $273k · 27% under $194/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Price Reduced. .. No CDD and No Bond. This is a rare find - 3 Bedrooms and 3 full baths with 1698 square feet of heated living space. The location of this house is in the beautiful Village of Country Club Hills. This house has skylights, ceiling fans, a golf cart garage, newly installed Leaf Filter Gutter Guards, irrigation system, a wide driveway with pavers, an electric fireplace in living room, an enclosed lanai with a hot tub. The asphalt roof (6 years), hot water heater (10 years), A/C (13 years) and double pane windows. House was inspected December 2025 You will enjoy the 7 minute golf cart ride to Spanish Springs Square for your nighly entertainment, restaurants, shopping, doctors

Key facts

• Rain gutters
• Ceiling fans
• Golf cart garage

Tags

• SKYLIGHTS
• CEILING FANS
• GOLF CART GARAGE
• RAIN GUTTERS
• IRRIGATION SYSTEM
• WIDE DRIVEWAY WITH PAVERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: approximately 0.12 acres; Lot classified as 0 to less than 1/4 acre; Community direction: North on US Hwy 441/US 27, right to Boone Ct (gate), around circle, right onto Magnolia Ave, right onto Orchid St
• Financial info: Annual taxes listed (2025); No lease restrictions indicated; Partially furnished
• HOA & community: Community amenities: golf course, pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, spa/hot tub; Community features: community mailbox, deed restrictions, dog park, golf carts allowed; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property; One level; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Exterior storage; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Skylight(s); Florida room; Interior in-law suite with private entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.1% in Lady Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#457 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 583 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,493/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1047% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,515 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.68%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,378
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1805 Kaufman Cir	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (-4%)	2mo	$295,000	$182	69
709 Turnberry Ln	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (+2%)	14mo	$279,900	$161	42
727 Turnberry Ln	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (-7%)	12mo	$165,000	$105	37
522 Saint Andrews Blvd	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,478 (-13%)	12mo	$175,000	$118	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,983
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $60,144
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 583
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$194
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,805

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $657	-5% $600	+0% $544	+5% $487	+10% $431
Rent	-10% $347	-5% $445	+0% $544	+5% $642	+10% $741
Rate	-1.0pp $644	-0.5pp $595	base $544	+0.5pp $492	+1.0pp $440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
923 Oleander St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	2076	$4,000	$1.93	25d	1	0.16mi
1540 Hillcrest Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	25d	1	0.42mi
1614 Kiley Ct Unit 1545709P Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1593	$3,452	$2.17	17d	1	0.47mi
1532 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$2,950	$2.70	25d	1	0.63mi
1430 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,500	$1.82	25d	1	0.70mi
17408 SE 121st Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,850	$1.07	22d	1	0.71mi
13765 NE 136th Loop Lady Lake, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$1,991	$1.85	22d	36	0.76mi
13740 Lead LN The Villages, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,150	$2.09	22d	38	0.79mi
1401 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1552	$1,999	$1.29	25d	1	0.83mi
17951 SE 115th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	14d	1	0.83mi
17472 SE 121st Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,950	$1.47	14d	1	0.85mi
703 Royal Palm Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1730	$2,600	$1.50	23d	1	0.99mi
640 Rainbow Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	25d	1	1.04mi
17817 SE 115th Ct Unit 1 Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$2,300	$1.07	22d	1	1.12mi
1222 Palmetto Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,700	$1.36	25d	1	1.15mi
1314 Corona Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$2,500	$1.51	22d	1	1.20mi
602 Jason Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1726	$1,650	$0.96	25d	1	1.27mi
1824 Marion County Rd Weirsdale, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,500	$1.41	25d	1	1.27mi
617 Webb Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1542	$3,000	$1.95	25d	1	1.28mi
13957 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	22d	1	1.48mi
13904 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	22d	1	1.49mi
943 Mendoza Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1268	$5,800	$4.57	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $194 · $2,328/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,500 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,500 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,500 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,500 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,500 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,500 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,500 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,500 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,500 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $199,500 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$427/yr (+$36/mo · 34.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,393
• − Management: −$2,393
• − HOA: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable income: $3,597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$863
• After-tax cash flow: $5,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lady Lake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #8302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lady Lake, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 32,107
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,228 · +26.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.