408 Oak St · Ogdensburg, NY 13669

$64,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1862 6,930 sqft lot Est $76k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom home sits on a deep lot with an insulated workshop outback complete with heat, electricity and cable TV hookup. This home has great potential for a new owner to complete the renovations. It offers a remodeled kitchen with oak cabinets, a spacious remodeled main floor bath with jetted tub and laundry, an added main floor bedroom, and new hard-maple stair treads with black walnut stringers. Updates include a 200-amp electric panel, wiring, plumbing, insulation, a new entry door, and nearly all new windows. Vinyl siding is completed at the back portion of the house, but the front siding and the two upstairs bedrooms remain unfinished. Won’t qualify for FHA, VA or USDA fina

Key facts

• Insulated workshop
• Remodeled kitchen
• New entry door

Tags

• INSULATED WORKSHOP
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW HARD-MAPLE STAIR TREADS
• BLACK WALNUT STRINGERS
• 200-AMP ELECTRIC PANEL
• NEW ENTRY DOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($904 rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.3% in Ogdensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Ogdensburg City School District (town): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $693 appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $65k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1862 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $64,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1862 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.69%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $76,000
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
706 Ford Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0	952 (+0%)	5mo	$76,000	$80	85
424 Rensselaer Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0	936 (-2%)	6mo	$75,000	$80	73
321 Jefferson Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	935 (-2%)	2mo	$95,000	$102	71
1008 Ford Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0	999 (+5%)	12mo	$89,900	$90	68
920 Ogden St	0.45mi	2/1.0	974 (+2%)	13mo	$23,500	$24	62
312 Madison Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0	900 (-5%)	13mo	$83,900	$93	62
215 Main Streer St	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,050 (+10%)	12mo	$45,000	$43	44
1022 Mechanic St	0.50mi	2/1.5	825 (-13%)	17mo	$37,500	$45	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $13,727
• Equity at exit: $22,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $40,405
• Equity at exit: $29,922

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13669

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $904 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,855/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $661

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-14
   listed $64,900 Active
3. 1997-01-13
   soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,855 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,855 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$1,855
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$868
• − Management: −$868
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $1,409
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$338
• After-tax cash flow: $1,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogdensburg City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621660
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,253
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5497
• State rank: #531 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ogdensburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogdensburg, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,615

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Polish 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.07%
• Current HPI: 264.0261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+250.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-15 Pending — SLCMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $64,900 SLCMLS
• 1997-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+123.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,855 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.