11414 Serra Rd #21 · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $55/sqft · 17% above area Est $68k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the welcoming Golden Coach Mobile Home Estates 55+ community, this beautifully maintained double-wide offers space, comfort, and peaceful surroundings with lovely views. The open floor plan provides both formal living and dining areas along with a comfortable family room and kitchenette, while built-in cabinetry, hutches, and wardrobe armoires add both charm and practical storage. Attractive vinyl flooring, classic wood paneling, drapes and sheers, and an indoor laundry room with cabinets make everyday living easy. The primary suite features a sunken soaking tub, and the home includes central heat, appliances, and thoughtful accessibility improvements including an earthquake bracing system. Outside, enjoy large covered front porch, a front picnic area perfect for relaxing outdoors, and a storage shed for added convenience. Residents of Golden Coach enjoy a friendly atmosphere with amenities including a pool just across the driveway, two clubhouses, bingo and social activities, RV parking area, and convenient access to nearby shopping. A comfortable and well-cared-for home in a community where life moves at just the right pace.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Kitchenette
• Double-wide

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FORMAL LIVING AND DINING AREAS
• COMFORTABLE FAMILY ROOM
• KITCHENETTE
• BUILT-IN CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.7% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 526 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→3/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.19%
• DSCR: 3.77
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,423
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: 16.77%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11414 Serra Rd #25	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-12%)	9mo	$69,900	$55	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $66,467
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.91×
• Total profit: $177,012
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $1,159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,215	-5% $1,187	+0% $1,159	+5% $1,132	+10% $1,104
Rent	-10% $988	-5% $1,074	+0% $1,159	+5% $1,245	+10% $1,331
Rate	-1.0pp $1,200	-0.5pp $1,180	base $1,159	+0.5pp $1,139	+1.0pp $1,118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11515 Chimayo Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1471	$2,250	$1.53	44d	1	0.66mi
11045 Kiowa Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,825	$1.59	25d	1	0.68mi
10868 Kiowa Rd Unit D Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	0d	1	0.81mi
11255 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,950	$1.70	44d	1	0.97mi
12212 Kiowa Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,700	$1.72	6d	1	1.08mi
19569 Saint Andrews Way Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1349	$1,985	$1.47	44d	1	1.19mi
12401 Tesuque Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,245	$1.49	44d	1	1.28mi
21181 Balsa St Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,500	$2.31	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-03-05
    listed $79,900 Active 1155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1155 chars)

    Located in the welcoming Golden Coach Mobile Home Estates 55+ community, this beautifully maintained double-wide offers space, comfort, and peaceful surroundings with lovely views. The open floor plan provides both formal living and dining areas along with a comfortable family room and kitchenette, while built-in cabinetry, hutches, and wardrobe armoires add both charm and practical storage. Attractive vinyl flooring, classic wood paneling, drapes and sheers, and an indoor laundry room with cabinets make everyday living easy. The primary suite features a sunken soaking tub, and the home includes central heat, appliances, and thoughtful accessibility improvements including an earthquake bracing system. Outside, enjoy large covered front porch, a front picnic area perfect for relaxing outdoors, and a storage shed for added convenience. Residents of Golden Coach enjoy a friendly atmosphere with amenities including a pool just across the driveway, two clubhouses, bingo and social activities, RV parking area, and convenient access to nearby shopping. A comfortable and well-cared-for home in a community where life moves at just the right pace.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 1 d/yr ≥99°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $13,441
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,226
• After-tax cash flow: $10,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained double-wide mobile home in a 55+ community offers a good condition with minor cosmetic improvements needed, such as painting the bathroom and refreshing the front porch. The home is move-in ready and has the potential to be a great investment with targeted updates.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Front porch paint — The front porch appears to have some fading paint, which could be refreshed with a fresh coat.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the bathroom with pink walls and floral wallpaper — Refreshing the bathroom's appearance can significantly improve its resale value.
• Rental Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can attract more renters and improve the home's rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Front porch paint · The front porch appears to have some fading paint, which could be refreshed with a fresh coat.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the bathroom with pink walls and floral wallpaper — Refreshing the bathroom's appearance can significantly improve its resale value. ↑
• Rental Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can attract more renters and improve the home's rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $79,900 CRMLS