5627 W Circle Dr · Alexandria, LA 71301

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1957 10,454 sqft lot Est $174k · 11% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER. .. Home may qualify for 100% financing. It is charming and well-maintained home offers 3 bedrooms and 21/2 bathrooms with 2,362 heated square feet of comfortable living space. Inside, you'll find a large family room suited for gatherings and everyday living, and outside, a covered back deck for relaxing or hosting guests. The property also includes a storage building, beautifully maintained landscaping, and updates such as a roof replaced within the last 3 years and windows approximately 5 years old. Thoughtfully cared for and move in ready, this home is ready for its new owner to add their own touch and make it their own.

Key facts

• Spacious den
• Roof replaced
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• COVERED BACK DECK PATIO
• SPACIOUS DEN
• WELL-KEPT LANDSCAPING
• ROOF REPLACED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Home design: Single family residence
• Exterior features: Covered porch or patio; Privacy fencing; Other fencing; Workshop / detached workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (general)
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1; Bedroom 2
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Den; Kitchen; Other room; Bathroom 1; Bathroom 2
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.9% in Alexandria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#160 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rapides Parish (urban): math 29% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #31 of 98 in LA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 239 units permitted in Rapides Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rapides County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.67%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,464
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5619 W Circle Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,759 (-5%)	2mo	$172,000	$98	79
5547 North Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,801 (-3%)	3mo	$170,000	$94	73
2203 Magnolia Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,795 (-3%)	2mo	$42,500	$24	59
5732 Mildred Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,936 (+4%)	4mo	$244,900	$126	54
5648 W Circle Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,578 (-15%)	23mo	$145,000	$92	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $13,254
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $60,861
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71301

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,117/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,229

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $691	-5% $647	+0% $603	+5% $559	+10% $515
Rent	-10% $446	-5% $524	+0% $603	+5% $682	+10% $760
Rate	-1.0pp $681	-0.5pp $642	base $603	+0.5pp $563	+1.0pp $522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2608 Horseshoe Dr Alexandria, LA	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	44d	1	0.27mi
2020 Clover Ln Alexandria, LA	3.0	2.0	1927	$1,600	$0.83	44d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $155,000
3. 2026-03-02
   price $168,000
4. 2025-10-07
   price $185,000
5. 2025-09-29
   listed $205,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,117 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,117 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,117
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $4,993
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,198
• After-tax cash flow: $6,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rapides Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -29.00%
• Median HH income: $41,057
• Composite: 30.68/100
• National rank: #6179
• State rank: #31 of 98 in LA

Livability — Alexandria

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #13698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alexandria, LA
• City population: 25,138
• Population (ZIP): 17,266

Population outlook (Rapides County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,047 people
• By 2030: 132,333 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 129,355 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 124,535 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 110,338 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 88,641 · -33.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rapides

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.8) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -28.7pp · 2024: -36.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.8 2020: R+32.1 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.38%
• Current HPI: 184.9889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-24.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $155,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $168,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $185,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $205,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,117 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.