4930 64th St · Lubbock, TX 79414

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Townhouse public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1984 3,300 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Can be sold individually, or as a package with 4928, & 4932 64th. Currently vacant, yet could rent for $1,000+/m. Just painted with new floor covering throughout.

Key facts

• New roof
• Garage
• Built 1984

Tags

• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-166/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Williams El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 307 students, 76% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 91 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,340 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-24,452
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-32,851
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79414

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,123 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,052/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,141

Max offer price $126,563

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $23	+0% $-14	+5% $-50	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-58	+0% $-14	+5% $31	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $19	base $-14	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6302 York Dr Unit 6302 B York Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1052	$1,195	$1.14	46d	1	0.11mi
4818 66th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$975	$0.73	46d	1	0.17mi
5016 61st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1395	$1,500	$1.08	46d	1	0.23mi
4806 60th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$1,375	$0.97	15d	1	0.34mi
4711 58th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,025	$0.93	23d	1	0.47mi
7001 Utica Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	944	$1,100	$1.16	46d	13	0.50mi
6504 Quaker Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,016	$1.40	15d	11	0.55mi
6508 Albany Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1115	$1,000	$0.90	23d	1	0.55mi
6402 Albany Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$824	$1.03	46d	4	0.55mi
4501 71st St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,095	$1.30	46d	9	0.71mi
5405 66th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,010	$1.16	23d	19	0.71mi
4804 76th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,350	$1.01	46d	1	0.73mi
5011 52nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,500	$1.16	23d	1	0.74mi
5128 Aberdeen Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	925	$915	$0.99	23d	9	0.76mi
5128 Aberdeen Ave Unit 206 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$915	$0.83	23d	1	0.76mi
4602 54th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	764	$975	$1.28	15d	11	0.79mi
4644 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$775	$0.93	15d	1	0.82mi
4638 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$749	$0.90	46d	1	0.83mi
4630 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$699	$0.84	46d	1	0.84mi
4626 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$775	$0.93	15d	1	0.85mi
4313 58th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1165	$1,099	$0.94	46d	1	0.86mi
6027 Orlando Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,400	$1.26	23d	1	0.87mi
4604 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$749	$0.90	46d	1	0.90mi
4303 58th St Unit a Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1170	$1,050	$0.90	46d	1	0.92mi
5102 80th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	870	$1,098	$1.26	46d	1	0.96mi
5202 Bangor Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1080	$987	$0.91	15d	11	0.98mi
6603 Elkhart Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1334	$1,300	$0.97	46d	1	1.00mi
5204 50th St Lubbock, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$939	$0.89	15d	2	1.02mi
4926 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,500	$1.11	23d	1	1.03mi
5401 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$899	$0.88	15d	11	1.04mi
4313 53rd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1368	$1,200	$0.88	46d	1	1.04mi
5001 Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	715	$1,019	$1.43	15d	15	1.06mi
4705 Albany Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	926	$742	$0.80	15d	5	1.07mi
5550 56th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$1,010	$1.05	15d	21	1.08mi
4602 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1080	$1,043	$0.97	15d	9	1.08mi
4320 52nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,395	$1.16	46d	1	1.09mi
5302 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	23d	1	1.11mi
7911 Albany Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,350	$0.94	23d	1	1.12mi
7911 Albany Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1441	$1,350	$0.94	15d	1	1.12mi
5002 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,450	$1.06	46d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $129,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $129,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-05-06
    listed $129,000 Active 293-char remark
12. 2021-11-08
    soldstatus 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    Can be sold individually, or as a package with 4928, & 4932 64th. Currently vacant, yet could rent for $1,000+/m. Just painted with new floor covering throughout.

13. 2021-10-06
    listed $120,000 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    Can be sold individually, or as a package with 4928, & 4932 64th. Currently vacant, yet could rent for $1,000+/m. Just painted with new floor covering throughout.

14. 2009-09-03
    soldstatus
15. 1990-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,361 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$308/yr (+$26/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$2,052
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$2,352
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$565
• After-tax cash flow: $399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,596
• Household income: $49,057
• Rent vs Own: 65.4% rent · 34.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1330.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 247.7963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2021-11-08 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2021-10-06 Listed $120,000 LARMLS
• 2009-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,052 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.