Pedernales Plan · Beasley, TX 77417

$277,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 456 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

Key facts

• Two bathroom
• Open-concept kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FOUR BEDROOM
• TWO BATHROOM
• SECLUDED WORK FROM HOME SPACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH

🏗️ New construction. The $277,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,919.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $278k).
• Recommended offer: $245k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.7% in Beasley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,273 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); Lamar J H (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 1,246 students, 71% FRL); Lamar Cons H S (math 26% / reading 48%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,762 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 43% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 303 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,965/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $85k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 456 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $244,631 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 456 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.63%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,919
• List price: $277,990
• Delta: -7.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10902 Bonfire Trl	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,794 (-0%)	1mo	$260,000	$145	80
10735 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-1%)	4mo	$289,990	$163	75
10723 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-1%)	3mo	$284,990	$160	75
10718 Sage Bend Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-1%)	2mo	$271,990	$153	74
1031 Pecan Harvest Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-1%)	1mo	$304,990	$172	72
622 Heaven Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,796 (-0%)	2mo	$289,990	$161	67
1030 Arbor Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,841 (+2%)	1mo	$294,990	$160	60
10715 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-11%)	2mo	$259,990	$163	53
619 Blue Stone Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,031 (+13%)	2mo	$306,990	$151	44
907 Heaven Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (-10%)	3mo	$270,000	$166	43
723 Blue Stone Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,031 (+13%)	2mo	$306,990	$151	43
623 Blue Stone Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+13%)	0mo	$304,990	$149	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $71,543
• Equity at exit: $155,790

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $209,828
• Equity at exit: $256,994

Cash invested: $84,537 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 99 active · 38 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.5 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $291,990 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,583
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,529/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,641

Max offer price $301,919

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $465	-5% $360	+0% $256	+5% $152	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $22	-5% $139	+0% $256	+5% $373	+10% $490
Rate	-1.0pp $408	-0.5pp $333	base $256	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,480
• Closing costs: $9,058
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,965	$1.59	0d	1	0.05mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $277,990 Active 456 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $277,990 Active 455 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $277,990 Active 454 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $277,990 Active 453 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $277,990 Active 452 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $277,990 Active 448 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $277,990 Active 447 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $277,990 Active 446 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $277,990 Active 445 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $277,990 Active 444 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $277,990 Active 443 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $277,990 Active 437 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $277,990 Active 436 DOM
14. 2026-09-02
    days on market $277,990 Active 434 DOM
15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $277,990 Active 432 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $277,990 Active 430 DOM
17. 2026-08-27
    days on market $277,990 Active 428 DOM
18. 2026-08-26
    days on market $277,990 Active 427 DOM
19. 2026-08-25
    days on market $277,990 Active 426 DOM
20. 2026-08-24
    days on market $277,990 Active 425 DOM
21. 2026-08-23
    days on market $277,990 Active 424 DOM
22. 2026-08-22
    days on market $277,990 Active 423 DOM
23. 2026-08-21
    days on market $277,990 Active 422 DOM
24. 2026-08-20
    days on market $277,990 Active 421 DOM
25. 2026-08-19
    days on market $277,990 Active 420 DOM
26. 2026-08-18
    days on market $277,990 Active 419 DOM
27. 2026-08-17
    days on market $277,990 Active 418 DOM
28. 2026-08-16
    days on market $277,990 Active 417 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    days on market $277,990 Active 416 DOM
30. 2026-08-14
    days on market $277,990 Active 415 DOM
31. 2026-08-13
    days on market $277,990 Active 414 DOM
32. 2026-08-12
    days on market $277,990 Active 413 DOM
33. 2026-08-11
    days on market $277,990 Active 412 DOM
34. 2026-08-10
    days on market $277,990 Active 411 DOM
35. 2026-08-09
    days on market $277,990 Active 410 DOM
36. 2026-08-08
    days on market $277,990 Active 409 DOM
37. 2026-08-06
    days on market $277,990 Active 407 DOM
38. 2026-08-05
    days on market $277,990 Active 406 DOM
39. 2026-08-04
    days on market $277,990 Active 405 DOM
40. 2026-08-03
    days on market $277,990 Active 404 DOM
41. 2026-07-31
    days on market $277,990 Active 401 DOM
42. 2026-07-30
    days on market $277,990 Active 399 DOM
43. 2026-07-28
    days on market $277,990 Active 398 DOM
44. 2026-07-26
    days on market $277,990 Active 396 DOM
45. 2026-07-24
    days on market $277,990 Active 394 DOM
46. 2026-07-23
    days on market $277,990 Active 393 DOM
47. 2026-07-22
    days on market $277,990 Active 392 DOM
48. 2026-07-21
    days on market $277,990 Active 391 DOM
49. 2026-07-20
    days on market $277,990 Active 390 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $277,990 Active 387 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,912
• − Property taxes: −$4,529
• − Insurance: −$1,510
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,846
• − Management: −$2,846
• − Depreciation: −$8,783
• Taxable loss: −$1,846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$443
• After-tax cash flow: $3,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Kendleton, TX, is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or investor looking for a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior stone — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Beasley El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Lamar J H F TX #971/1,662 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Dr Thomas E Randle H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Beasley

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1273
• US rank: #22130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,232
• Household income: $60,809
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $277,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-25 Listed $284,990 Zillow