Pedernales Plan · Kendleton, TX 77417

$277,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 361 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

Key facts

• Two bathroom
• Open-concept kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FOUR BEDROOM
• TWO BATHROOM
• SECLUDED WORK FROM HOME SPACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH

🏗️ New construction. The $277,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,836.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $278k).
• Recommended offer: $245k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 6.2% in Kendleton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); Lamar J H (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 1,246 students, 71% FRL); Lamar Cons H S (math 26% / reading 48%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,762 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 43% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $83k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 361 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $244,631 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 361 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.43%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,836
• List price: $277,990
• Delta: -5.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10735 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-1%)	0mo	$289,990	$163	78
719 Mockingbird Psge	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,863 (+4%)	2mo	$335,490	$180	76
1031 Rosewood Trl	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-1%)	3mo	$299,900	$169	70
1111 Whispering Winds Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,841 (+2%)	4mo	$338,900	$184	68
10803 Hickory Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-1%)	2mo	$309,900	$174	64
10627 Summers Way	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (+1%)	5mo	$303,990	$167	58
723 Blue Sky Pl	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,922 (+7%)	5mo	$314,990	$164	57
10615 Summers Way	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (+1%)	5mo	$305,990	$168	56
10710 Sage Bend Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-11%)	1mo	$274,990	$172	52
1027 Rosewood Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-10%)	3mo	$313,900	$194	51
1022 Whispering Winds Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,613 (-10%)	5mo	$292,900	$182	50
10915 Tawny Ridge Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,066 (+15%)	4mo	$293,990	$142	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $73,365
• Equity at exit: $152,135

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $212,465
• Equity at exit: $250,966

Cash invested: $82,554 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,423/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,579

Max offer price $294,836

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $509	-5% $407	+0% $305	+5% $203	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $71	-5% $188	+0% $305	+5% $422	+10% $539
Rate	-1.0pp $453	-0.5pp $380	base $305	+0.5pp $228	+1.0pp $151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,709
• Closing costs: $8,845
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,965	$1.59	0d	1	0.05mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $277,990 Active 361 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $277,990 Active 358 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $277,990 Active 357 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,990 Active 356 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,990 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,990 Active 353 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $277,990 Active 349 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $277,990 Active 348 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $277,990 Active 347 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $277,990 Active 344 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $277,990 Active 343 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,990 Active 342 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $277,990 Active 341 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,990 Active 340 DOM
15. 2026-02-14
    price $277,990 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

16. 2025-06-25
    listed $284,990 Active 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,515
• − Property taxes: −$4,423
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,846
• − Management: −$2,846
• − Depreciation: −$8,577
• Taxable loss: −$1,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$264
• After-tax cash flow: $3,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Kendleton, TX, is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or investor looking for a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior stone — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior stone — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kendleton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1021
• US rank: #18149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $277,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-25 Listed $284,990 Zillow