1009 39th Street St · Ashland, KY 41101

$21,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1940 8,712 sqft lot $17/sqft · 84% below area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL! Take a look at this fixer upper in Ashland City limits. Great potential with this one! Could be a nice starter home or income property after some renovations. Don't let this one pass you by! Call Today!

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Listed 127 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $707 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 48.7% vs local median 5.4% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#304 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ashland Independent (urban): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #49 of 165 in KY (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Boyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $151 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $657 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boyd County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,272 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 48.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 151.35%
• DSCR: 7.73
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,014
• List price: $21,900
• Delta: -82.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4200 Mound Street St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,240 (-4%)	6mo	$160,000	$129	75
3911 Duke Street St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+11%)	1mo	$187,500	$131	68
824 Gartrell Street St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,212 (-6%)	1mo	$151,000	$125	66
3842 Cactus Street St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,342 (+4%)	2mo	$217,000	$162	59
4028 Hart Street St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,180 (-8%)	7mo	$142,000	$120	59
4019 Ferguson Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+4%)	8mo	$192,000	$144	54
4320 Gartin Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,404 (+9%)	8mo	$90,000	$64	53
3836 Logan St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,150 (-11%)	3mo	$68,500	$60	52
4009 Ferguson Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (-2%)	8mo	$142,900	$113	52
1303 Grandview Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+9%)	2mo	$82,500	$59	45
3230 Bath Ave. Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,106 (-14%)	1mo	$62,500	$57	44
650 Gartrell Street St	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,456 (+13%)	7mo	$149,900	$103	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.77×
• Total profit: $41,532
• Equity at exit: $3,265

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.39×
• Total profit: $94,373
• Equity at exit: $1,894

Cash invested: $6,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41101

• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$115
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $298/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $272

Max offer price $21,900

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $719	-5% $713	+0% $707	+5% $701	+10% $695
Rent	-10% $615	-5% $661	+0% $707	+5% $753	+10% $799
Rate	-1.0pp $718	-0.5pp $712	base $707	+0.5pp $701	+1.0pp $695

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,475
• Closing costs: $657
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $21,900 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $21,900 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $21,900 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $21,900 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $21,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $21,900 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $21,900 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $21,900 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $21,900 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $21,900 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $21,900 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,900 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,900 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,900 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,900 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-03-17
    price $25,900 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! Take a look at this fixer upper in Ashland City limits. Great potential with this one! Could be a nice starter home or income property after some renovations. Don't let this one pass you by! Call Today!

17. 2026-02-11
    listed $29,900 Active 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! Take a look at this fixer upper in Ashland City limits. Great potential with this one! Could be a nice starter home or income property after some renovations. Don't let this one pass you by! Call Today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $298 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $298 · $25/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,227
• − Property taxes: −$298
• − Insurance: −$907
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,121
• − Management: −$1,121
• − Depreciation: −$637
• Taxable income: $8,698
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,087
• After-tax cash flow: $6,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashland Independent
• NCES district ID: 2100150
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,579
• Composite: 31.51/100
• National rank: #5971
• State rank: #49 of 165 in KY

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #14462

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashland, KY
• City population: 19,331
• Population (ZIP): 19,331

Population outlook (Boyd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,137 people
• By 2030: 44,585 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 41,442 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 38,313 · -17.0%
• By 2075: 31,077 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 23,432 · -49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Boyd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.5) · D 30.0% · R 68.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+33.2 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.83%
• Current HPI: 148.0076
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $25,900 AABOR
• 2026-02-11 Listed $29,900 AABOR

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $298 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.