138 Elkan Ave · Ferguson, MO 63135

$104,900

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1953 4,373 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy 2 bedroom home on a dead end street. Fenced rear yard with large utility shed, Large patio and large front porch. Clean home with large eat in kit. good size bedrooms. There is a Full bath in the finished lower level with shower. additional room in bsmt. Bargained priced home that sure to amaze the selective buyer. Come see

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Custom cabinetry
• Open floor plan

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• REMODELED EAT-IN KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPDATED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No pool; Lot features include back yard, front yard, and few trees
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt and concrete driveway; Off-street parking
• Security: Storm doors; Panel doors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (Ameren); Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; Private ownership; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard; Front yard; Few trees; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Freezer; Microwave; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on main level)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in basement; Basement laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mccluer High (math 0% / reading 17%, grade F, #511 of 521 statewide, top 98%, 1,181 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $105k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,342 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.41%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $61,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Elkan Ave	0.05mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (0%)	4mo	$89,900	$125	87
915 Maurice Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (0%)	3mo	$60,000	$83	84
135 Anabel Ave	0.03mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (0%)	10mo	$109,000	$151	83
149 Elkan Ave	0.04mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (0%)	13mo	$45,000	$63	80
721 Beardsley Ct	0.14mi	2/1.0 (+1)	820 (+14%)	4mo	$89,900	$110	60
901 Arline Ave	0.59mi	1/1.0	744 (+3%)	8mo	$50,000	$67	58
6158 Emerald Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0 (+1)	768 (+7%)	14mo	$84,900	$111	57
114 Fermo Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0 (+1)	820 (+14%)	12mo	$45,000	$55	55
137 Wiegel Dr	0.39mi	2/1.0 (+1)	768 (+7%)	11mo	$34,900	$45	55
811 Marvin Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (0%)	7mo	$99,999	$139	55
7733 Brand Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (+1)	656 (-9%)	15mo	$49,900	$76	54
7501 Blanding Dr	0.50mi	2/1.0 (+1)	768 (+7%)	7mo	$65,000	$85	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,576
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $36,242
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,033 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $790/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $835

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $186	+0% $157	+5% $127	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $116	+0% $157	+5% $198	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $210	-0.5pp $183	base $157	+0.5pp $130	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7733 Brand Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	656	$1,090	$1.66	24d	1	0.22mi
26 Arbor Village Ct Ferguson, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$800	$1.12	24d	1	0.23mi
6180 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	729	$1,300	$1.78	44d	1	0.29mi
806 Marvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	726	$1,100	$1.52	44d	1	0.67mi
334 Mueller Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	713	$825	$1.16	24d	1	1.10mi
5500 Mable Ave Unit 5518 B4 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$835	$1.11	44d	1	1.12mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	24d	1	1.12mi
1550 Northwinds Estates Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$810	$0.92	44d	1	1.28mi
7516 Chandler Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	728	$1,000	$1.37	44d	1	1.44mi
5600 Gatesworth Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	5d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $104,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,018 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$228/yr (+$19/mo · 28.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$790
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$992
• − Management: −$992
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $175
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$42
• After-tax cash flow: $1,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+238.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Coming Soon $104,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $122,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-20 Listed $124,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-21 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-05 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-04 Price Changed $12,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-23 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-18 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-04 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-01 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-13 Price Changed $14,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-09 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-08 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-16 Price Changed $16,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-14 Price Changed $19,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-14 Listed $24,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $50,850 Public Records
• 1992-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 1991-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1980-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $790 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.