18785 El Mirage Airport Rd · Piñon Hills, CA 92301

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1983 4.76 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * Seller May Carry the Note * * * Escape to your own private slice of country living on approximately 4.75 acres of secluded land! This unique property features two manufactured homes, a private well, and three electric meters—offering incredible potential for multi-generational living, rental income, or your dream rural retreat. With plenty of space, wide-open skies, and room to make it your own, this fixer opportunity is perfect for buyers looking to create something special. Come explore the possibilities and see the value for yourself! Click Virtual Tour for more photos and 3d Walk-Through.

Key facts

• Private well
• Secluded land
• 4.76 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL
• THREE ELECTRIC METERS
• TWO MANUFACTURED HOMES
• SECLUDED LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Classic Chevy truck excluded from sale
• Financial info: Total of 2 units on the property
• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; No sewer/septic (none)
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Accessory dwelling unit (ADU) on the property (1 ADU)
• Construction: Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Horse property; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Main-floor primary bedroom; Main-floor bedrooms; Workshop; Living room with fireplace; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.8% in Piñon Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Victor Valley Union High (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #407 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 631 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $225k implies a 2547% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.30%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $137,392
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.42×
• Total profit: $404,154
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92301

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 631
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,403/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,971

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $301	-5% $237	+0% $174	+5% $110	+10% $46
Rent	-10% $0	-5% $87	+0% $174	+5% $260	+10% $347
Rate	-1.0pp $287	-0.5pp $231	base $174	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 610-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    listed $250,000 Active
17. 2026-03-28
    historical
18. 2025-10-18
    listed $252,500 Active
19. 2000-04-03
    soldstatus $8,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,403 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,403 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,403
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$382
• After-tax cash flow: $2,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Valley Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636972
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $45,112
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8296
• State rank: #407 of 517 in CA

Livability — Piñon Hills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 4,854
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,577
• Household income: $68,676
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1345.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 34% Black 15% White 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 46%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.09%
• Current HPI: 453.6071
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.68%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2841.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-18 Listed $252,500 CRMLS
• 2000-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,403 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.