31210 Carmelas Landing Dr · Fulshear, TX 77441

$279,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,717 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $163/sqft · 22% below area Est $359k · 22% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ESTIMATED CLOSING DATE IS JULY 2026. Welcome to the Forest plan located at one of the most sought-after communities in Fulshear, Tamarron. This home offers an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room with a covered back patio. The primary suite is located at the rear of the home for privacy. Three secondary bedrooms are centrally positioned by the front of the home. The Forest plan simplicity is ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy Tamarron’ s resort-style pools, splash pad, fitness centers, playgrounds, lakes, trails & sports fields. Close to shopping, dining, I-10, Grand Pkwy & Westpark Tollway. Zoned to top-rated Katy ISD schools.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 6 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.7% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1802 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,713 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.63%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $358,515
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -21.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3010 Liams Tower Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,717 (0%)	0mo	$289,990	$169	96
3083 Liams Tower Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+4%)	1mo	$299,990	$169	88
31127 Bonnington Venture Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+4%)	0mo	$299,990	$169	88
3034 Liams Tower Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-7%)	1mo	$279,990	$176	81
31103 Bonnington Venture Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,544 (-10%)	1mo	$301,990	$196	75
31318 Bentley Pines Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-11%)	1mo	$274,990	$179	71
31115 Bonnington Venture Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-11%)	1mo	$269,990	$176	70
3322 Bonnie Heights St	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,748 (+2%)	1mo	$314,990	$180	67
2806 Garden Meadow St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+4%)	1mo	$324,990	$181	64
2815 Garden Meadow St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-7%)	1mo	$312,991	$196	61
2726 Sunrise Field Ln	0.48mi	4/3.0	1,878 (+9%)	0mo	$403,900	$215	58
30823 Lake Spur Mnr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,837 (+7%)	1mo	$320,000	$174	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-42,186
• Equity at exit: $41,747

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-52,666
• Equity at exit: $24,208

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 125 active · 78 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.3 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,000 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1802
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,667 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $279,990

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $366	-5% $269	+0% $172	+5% $75	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-39	-5% $67	+0% $172	+5% $277	+10% $383
Rate	-1.0pp $313	-0.5pp $243	base $172	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31306 Bentley Pines Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,100	$1.18	18d	1	0.06mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,330	$1.36	0d	8	1.00mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-07-09
   pricedays on market $279,990 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-07-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-07-06
   days on market $299,990 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-07-06
   days on market $299,990 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-07-05
   pricedays on marketlisting id $299,990 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-07-03
   days on market $279,990 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-07-02
   days on market $279,990 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-07-01
   days on market $279,990 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-30
   price $279,990 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-30
    days on market $294,990 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-29
    days on market $294,990 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-28
    days on market $294,990 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-27
    days on market $294,990 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $294,990 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-06-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-06-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-06-18
    remarks 663-char remark
19. 2026-06-18
    listed $299,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,560
• − Management: −$2,560
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$2,544
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$611
• After-tax cash flow: $2,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Fulshear, TX is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value increase through landscaping and painting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and pool area — Enhances curb appeal and provides recreational value. ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and provides recreational value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Fulshear H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-30 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-24 Price Changed $294,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-18 Listed $299,990 HARMLS