2801 Willow Run · Orlando, FL 32808

$164,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 257 Days on market

Built 1976 1,950 sqft lot Est $180k · 8% under $126/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rented $1445/m with an annual lease end date 10/31/2026! NEW ROOF! Start receiving income on day one! Rare opportunity to own in the Willows! Real wood kitchen and bath cabinets, stainless steel pulls, GRANITE in bathroom and kitchen! Stainless steel appliances! Tile and Luxury Vinyl Plank throughout! LED ceiling fan and light kits in both bedrooms with remote controls, blinds throughout, washer dryer connections in utility room, covered porch area, this place has it all and at a LOW price! VERY low HOA fee of $126/m Seller is the the retirement fund of the Agent. Don't wait on this one!

Key facts

• Tile throughout
• Granite in kitchen
• Granite in bathroom

Tags

• REAL WOOD KITCHEN CABINETS
• REAL WOOD BATH CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE IN BATHROOM
• GRANITE IN KITCHEN
• TILE THROUGHOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential townhouse; Zoning: R-3A/W; Lot size approximately 0.04 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre); Road surface: Asphalt
• HOA & community: HOA (Willow HOM / managed by Empire); Monthly HOA fee $126 — includes grounds maintenance; Association fee required; Pets allowed: Cats and Dogs

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Completed condition; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of building number 2801
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($228/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rolling Hills Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 472 students, 77% FRL); Meadowbrook Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #532 of 571 statewide, top 94%, 957 students, 78% FRL); Maynard Evans High (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #562 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 2,417 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 56% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 251 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $165k implies a 189% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,632
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5112 Figwood Ln	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+3%)	8mo	$185,000	$206	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-30,034
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-42,058
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32808

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,568 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,924/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$126
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,544

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $66	+0% $19	+5% $-28	+10% $-74
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-43	+0% $19	+5% $81	+10% $143
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $61	base $19	+0.5pp $-24	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4757 Silver Star Rd Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	728	$1,189	$1.63	25d	1	0.07mi
4705 Almond Willow Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,600	$1.85	25d	1	0.08mi
2920 Eastern Willow Ave Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	868	$1,500	$1.73	25d	1	0.13mi
3071 Willow Bend Blvd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,525	$1.69	25d	1	0.17mi
3043 Willow Bend Blvd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	25d	1	0.19mi
4697 Rose Coral Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	576	$1,437	$2.49	0d	15	0.27mi
4500 Silver Star Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,309	$1.31	25d	1	0.29mi
3285 Split Willow Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	845	$1,400	$1.66	25d	1	0.38mi
4306 Silver Star Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,800	$1.67	25d	1	0.47mi
5249 Champagne Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,795	$1.83	25d	1	0.73mi
2203 Silver Pines Pl #601 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	962	$1,500	$1.56	25d	1	0.86mi
5505 Hernandes Dr #113 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	728	$1,175	$1.61	25d	1	0.88mi
5600 Silver Star Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,310	$1.54	16d	6	0.90mi
4358 South Lake Orlando Pkwy Unit 3-3 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1089	$1,750	$1.61	0d	1	0.92mi
1407 Sunridge Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,945	$1.73	9d	1	1.01mi
1537 Ridge Pointe Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1108	$2,200	$1.99	25d	1	1.06mi
1529 Ridge Pointe Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1108	$1,995	$1.80	9d	1	1.07mi
4990 North Ln Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$1,230	$2.85	22d	5	1.09mi
4919 Erleen Pl Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	965	$800	$0.83	25d	1	1.11mi
4564 Pheasant Run Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1084	$1,495	$1.38	0d	1	1.13mi
1214 N Pine Hills Rd Unit 2 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	868	$2,100	$2.42	22d	1	1.16mi
4758 Muir Village Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1097	$2,043	$1.86	0d	1	1.36mi
4501 Landing Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,418	$1.83	0d	18	1.38mi
1625 Mercy Dr Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	25d	1	1.46mi
4907 Lake Ridge Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	947	$1,475	$1.56	25d	1	1.47mi
1020 barnett villas Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	934	$1,439	$1.54	25d	1	1.47mi
4793 N Pine Hills Rd Unit 41-101 Pine Hills, FL	3.0	2.0	1019	$1,649	$1.62	9d	1	1.48mi
4793 N Pine Hills Rd Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	954	$1,449	$1.52	18d	56	1.48mi
4793 N Pine Hills Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	890	$1,554	$1.75	4d	1	1.48mi
4901 Bottlebrush Ln Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	833	$1,770	$2.12	0d	15	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $126 · $1,512/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 257 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 254 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 253 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 252 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 251 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 249 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 248 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 245 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 244 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 243 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 240 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 239 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 238 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 237 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 236 DOM
16. 2026-03-29
    price $164,900
17. 2026-01-13
    price $169,900
18. 2025-10-24
    status Active
19. 2025-10-24
    historical
20. 2025-10-20
    historical
21. 2025-10-20
    listed $175,000 Active
22. 2025-10-16
    historical $1,445
23. 2025-10-10
    price $174,900
24. 2025-10-03
    listed $179,500 Active
25. 2025-09-25
    price $1,445
26. 2025-07-09
    listed $1,495
27. 2023-11-21
    historical $1,375
28. 2023-11-17
    listed $1,375
29. 2020-12-01
    soldstatus $57,000
30. 2013-10-04
    historical
31. 2013-09-09
    listed $30,000
32. 1982-12-01
    soldstatus $42,500
33. 1981-03-01
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,924 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,924 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,924
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − HOA: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$2,488
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$597
• After-tax cash flow: $825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orlando, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 60,203
• Household income: $49,700
• Rent vs Own: 58.0% rent · 42.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 4039.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% Hispanic / Latino 13% White 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 20% Lithuanian 1% Scandinavian 0%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 18% Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.15%
• Current HPI: 376.3801
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.27%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+385.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Rental Removed $1,445 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Listed $179,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $1,445 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-07-09 Listed for Rent $1,495 TENANTTURNER2
• 2023-11-21 Rental Removed $1,375 BUILDIUM
• 2023-11-17 Listed for Rent $1,375 BUILDIUM
• 2020-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-09 Listed $30,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1982-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 1981-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,924 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.