Is The Brazos F Plan in Cleveland, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.8% cap rate and $-385/mo modeled cash flow at a $279,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for The Brazos F Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,135/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 31.12

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.4/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Schools +3.0/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
1% rule +2.1/10.0
DSCR +1.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$279,990

The Brazos F Plan · Cleveland, TX 77328

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market

Good condition Garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Brazos! This two-story home is ready to welcome you home! You'll find an open concept family and kitchen area on the main floor as well as a powder room, mudroom and laundry off the two-car garage. The primary suite is also on the main floor and boasts a large walk-in closet. There are four additional bedrooms upstairs along with a bathroom and loft area. Make it your own with The Brazos' flexible floor plan. From an additional bathroom or added garage space to a covered patio, you've got every opportunity to make The Brazos your dream home. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

Key facts

Walk-in closet
Flexible floor plan
Covered patio

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (12.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (23.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $213k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Greenleaf El (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 797 students, 70% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
Market conditions: 411 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,480 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.71% ✗
Cap rate: 4.75%
Cash-on-cash: -5.50%
DSCR: 0.76
GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $299,708
List price: $279,990
Delta: -6.58%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25988 Liberation Rd	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,128 (-3%)	10mo	$289,990	$136	76
10943 Independence Rd	0.09mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,084 (-5%)	6mo	$329,504	$158	75
11005 Crossno Dr	0.15mi	5/2.0	2,280 (+4%)	17mo	$325,000	$143	71
11056 Patriot Ct	0.21mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,052 (-7%)	13mo	$299,758	$146	62
26023 Liberation Rd	0.07mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,052 (-7%)	21mo	$309,978	$151	61
25576 Rose Creek Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,891 (-14%)	1mo	$209,990	$111	37
25565 Rose Creek Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,891 (-14%)	1mo	$211,840	$112	34
10955 Woods Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,522 (+15%)	23mo	$389,000	$154	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -25.7%
Equity multiple: 0.13×
Total profit: $-73,036
Equity at exit: $44,687

10-year hold

IRR: -22.1%
Equity multiple: -0.13×
Total profit: $-95,019
Equity at exit: $25,913

Cash invested: $83,918 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 29 active · 10 under contract
Months of supply: 10.9 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $262,990 ($125/sqft)
Median days on market: 100 d
This list price: 59% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +9.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77328

Home prices YoY: -7.7%
Active inventory: 411
Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,135 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,572
Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,496/yr
Insurance: −$125
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,622

Max offer price $244,038

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-178	-5% $-281	+0% $-385	+5% $-488	+10% $-592
Rent	-10% $-553	-5% $-469	+0% $-385	+5% $-300	+10% $-216
Rate	-1.0pp $-234	-0.5pp $-308	base $-385	+0.5pp $-462	+1.0pp $-541

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $74,927
Closing costs: $8,991
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10659 Lost Maples Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	71d	1	0.64mi
25507 Greenwood Canyon Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$2,765	$1.42	0d	1	0.70mi
10793 Castle Rock Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2174	$2,000	$0.92	16d	1	0.76mi
25588 Rose Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	1891	$1,895	$1.00	16d	1	0.77mi
25585 Rose Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,750	$1.03	38d	1	0.79mi
25432 Birch Hill Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	68d	1	0.90mi
25377 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,225	$1.02	0d	1	0.92mi
10487 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	71d	1	0.92mi
25419 Birch Hill Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,099	$1.26	52d	1	0.93mi
10457 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	73d	1	0.96mi
10422 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,745	$0.80	38d	1	1.02mi
10410 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	73d	1	1.03mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Inventory type: Plan
Financial info: List price $279,990

Exterior

Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
Home design: Single-family home (new construction plan: The Brazos F)
Construction: New construction (plan name: The Brazos F)
Exterior features: Approximately 2200 living areaAddress: Cleveland, TX (10916 Independence Rd area)

Interior

Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
Interior features: New construction plan (The Brazos F)

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $279,990 Active 127 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $279,990 Active 125 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $279,990 Active 124 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $279,990 Active 123 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $279,990 Active 122 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $279,990 Active 119 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $279,990 Active 118 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $279,990 Active 117 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $279,990 Active 116 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $279,990 Active 114 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $279,990 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $279,990 Active 111 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $279,990 Active 110 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $279,990 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $279,990 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $279,990 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $279,990 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $279,990 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $279,990 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $279,990 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $279,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $279,990 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $279,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $279,990 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $279,990 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $279,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $279,990 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $279,990 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $279,990 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $279,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $279,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $279,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $279,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $279,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $279,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $279,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $279,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $279,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $279,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $279,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $279,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $279,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $279,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $279,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $279,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $279,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $279,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $279,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $279,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $279,990 Active 61 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,618
− Mortgage interest: −$16,788
− Property taxes: −$4,496
− Insurance: −$1,499
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
− Management: −$2,049
− Depreciation: −$8,719
Taxable loss: −$9,982

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,396
After-tax cash flow: $-2,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
Resale Upgrading bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑
Both Upgrading HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Greenleaf El F TX #2,927/4,322 Nat'l #29,439/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Splendora ISD
NCES district ID: 4841070
Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $54,166
Composite: 24.92/100
National rank: #7572
State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

Score: 61/100
State rank: #1013
US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: San Jacinto County · 713,896 people
City population: 17,208
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 17,208
Household income: $62,428
Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
Current HPI: 273.6604
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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