6031 Crooked Post Rd · Spring, TX 77373

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1976 6,242 sqft lot Est $236k · 26% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large three bedroom home located in a great school district and in close to proximity to a major airport and freeway. Home has some beautiful wood work, fireplace and wet bar. Gated courtyard.

Key facts

• Built-in mini bar
• Granite countertops
• 6,242 sq ft lot

Tags

• BUILT-IN MINI BAR
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DIRECT BACKYARD ACCESS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chet Burchett El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 904 students, 82% FRL); Dueitt Middle (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 773 students, 84% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $175k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.16%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,300
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5715 Walnutgate Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,565 (-8%)	4mo	$220,000	$141	50
22731 Melham Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-10%)	13mo	$190,000	$124	48
23142 Calico Corners Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,599 (-6%)	19mo	$179,000	$112	46
23114 Goodfellow Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,541 (-9%)	7mo	$210,000	$136	46
23202 Goodfellow Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,798 (+6%)	14mo	$250,000	$139	38
23814 Gold Cypress Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-10%)	19mo	$279,990	$182	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-11,072
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,209
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$411 /mo · $4,937/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,816

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-04-29
   soldstatus
2. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-11
   price $174,900
5. 2026-03-10
   status Active
6. 2026-01-24
   status Pending
7. 2026-01-21
   status Pending
8. 2025-12-29
   price $189,900
9. 2025-11-24
   price $199,900
10. 2025-10-29
    price $209,900
11. 2025-09-24
    price $219,900
12. 2025-08-20
    listed $229,900 Active
13. 2025-08-09
    historical $1,549
14. 2025-08-07
    price $1,549
15. 2025-07-31
    price $1,519
16. 2025-07-24
    price $1,569
17. 2025-07-16
    price $1,629
18. 2025-07-12
    price $1,649
19. 2025-07-08
    price $1,699
20. 2025-07-05
    price $1,749
21. 2025-06-28
    listed $1,799
22. 2013-10-10
    soldstatus
23. 2013-09-27
    soldstatus Sold 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Large three bedroom home located in a great school district and in close to proximity to a major airport and freeway. Home has some beautiful wood work, fireplace and wet bar. Gated courtyard.

24. 2013-09-05
    status Pending 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Large three bedroom home located in a great school district and in close to proximity to a major airport and freeway. Home has some beautiful wood work, fireplace and wet bar. Gated courtyard.

25. 2013-08-09
    listed $64,900 Active 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Large three bedroom home located in a great school district and in close to proximity to a major airport and freeway. Home has some beautiful wood work, fireplace and wet bar. Gated courtyard.

26. 2013-07-18
    soldstatus
27. 2013-06-29
    historical
28. 2013-05-15
    status Pending, Continue to Show
29. 2013-05-13
    price $67,600
30. 2013-04-12
    listed $63,000 Active
31. 1999-05-01
    soldstatus $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,937 · $411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,937 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$4,937
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,197
• − Management: −$2,197
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $1,980
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$475
• After-tax cash flow: $4,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+192.0% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $174,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-09 Rental Removed $1,549 Tricon
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $1,549 Tricon
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $1,519 Tricon
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $1,569 Tricon
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $1,629 Tricon
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $1,649 Tricon
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $1,699 Tricon
• 2025-07-05 Price Changed $1,749 Tricon
• 2025-06-28 Listed for Rent $1,799 Tricon
• 2013-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-09-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-09-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-08-09 Listed $64,900 HARMLS
• 2013-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-06-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-05-13 Price Changed $67,600 HARMLS
• 2013-04-12 Listed $63,000 HARMLS
• 1999-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,937 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.